WEATHER BLOG

Considering our average high for today is 67°, the fact that we have had highs in the upper 70s and 80s since November 29 is pretty remarkable. In fact, the past three days have been in the low 80s, nearing the all-time record high for December which is 85° (1995)! We get a cool down today with the front, but don’t rush to clean those holiday sweaters because you won’t need them long! We’re right back into the 70s Wednesday with low 80s by Friday.

Many of us will have our personal stories of Hurricane Nicholas (mine’s at the end). Fortunately, most of our memories for this one are a blip on our weather screen: downed trees, awnings and fences; flooded roads, torn up siding. No fatalities were reported and damage stood at around a billion dollars. While we’ve seen worse, four to seven feet of water was measured in spots along the coast, almost 10 inches of rain fell in Deer Park, and winds topped 94 mph at Matagorda Bay. Some significant house and car damage occurred, especially for coastal residents:

Granted, we haven’t seen much tropical activity the past couple of months, so the fact that the season is now “over over” surprises no one. If you look at the bell curve of tropical activity, September 10th is the most likely day to have some kind of tropical system in the Atlantic Basin:

If you watch my weathercasts, then you know I include a Haircast and for good reason: our weather around here is fearsomely frizz-friendly and curl-cratering. A new study presents the styling proof, combing through 2021 weather data in 94 U.S. cities. Assigning scores for high and low temperatures, rainfall, wind, relative humidity and dew point resulted in ranks from hair-tacular to hair-rrible!

The above cover photo is the popular painting of the “original feast” as the American colonists honored the Wampanoag Indians in 1619 and again in 1621 for their valuable helping the Pilgrims grow crops and understand the nuances of their new home (dead fish, for instance, makes great manure). Those first feasts included some kind of fowl, possibly turkey, along with a lot of corn and root vegetables. Hardly the throw down we have these days!

I had what might seem like a typical question from a viewer, but this one actually prompted a little research to share!

You’ve passed Leona on your way to Dallas and my viewer from there sent me this email:

I have to admit: I wish this one was real. The huge moon eclipsing the sun somewhere around the north pole went viral crazy last week looking something like you’d see in a Star Wars movie on another planet. The descriptor even read like a movie-trailer:<i><b> Imagine that you are in a place between Russia and Canada in the Arctic during the day, where there is 24-hour daylight in the summertime. At a certain time, the Moon appears for 30 seconds just above the horizon - which explains it’s enormous size - and after it covers the Sun for about 5 seconds - it disappears again!<br/> A completely fall-to-the-knees moment!</b></i>

It seems like every time we show the morning lows, Conroe looks to be the coldest spot around and sometimes colder than ten degrees than other places nearby, like Tomball and Huntsville. For instance, this morning Conroe came in at 48° while Huntsville reported 61° and Tomball reported 53°.

First things first, we’re not expecting any wind chill issues this weekend, but we’ll get there eventually. I had an interesting viewer question:

Climate Central today came out with <a href="https://medialibrary.climatecentral.org/resources/record-rain#angles" target="_blank">more information</a> about just how the nation is faring with precipitation and the bottom line is that here in Houston we’re seeing rain more often and more of it! Two key points:

I’ve had several viewers ask about our weekend sky (so crisp and clear!) and just what is off to the side of the crescent moon. That’s Venus and it will pass to the other side tonight. All month you’ll be able to see Venus up there and as the month progresses Saturn and Jupiter show up also:

My friends, Tim and Stephen, played it smart with Daylight Saving Time---they were in Puerto Vallarta last weekend and got an extra hour of sleep as Mexico went back one hour last Sunday. Now this weekend back home in Texas, they’ll get another extra hour of sleep! You may remember back in 2007 when President Bush changed the ‘change day’ to the first weekend in November rather than the last weekend in October---too much danger in the dark during Halloween for trick-or-treaters. Mexico stuck with the original so if you’re looking for extra hours of sleep consider that trick next time! But this is what we have for us this Sunday:

Happy Hump Day and get ready for a Bump Day! That slow-moving cold front will produce a few isolated thunderstorms along with 1-2 inches of rain between this afternoon and tomorrow morning. The rain on the way is right there to our west this morning:

I always call November the “no nineties” month which means finding cooler weather is easy as pumpkin pie. While we have seen the 90 degree mark across the area in this month, our official BUSH/IAH recording station has never reported higher than 89 in this month (seven times we’ve officially hit 89 and each time was a record high for the day). Generally, the first half of the month falls in the upper 70s with lower 70s the second half, while lows hover in the low 50s falling to the upper 40s. Here’s a handy, dandy chart I put together:

Ghoul temperatures and vampire-roasting sunshine are on tap for this Halloween Weekend, no bones about it! This is a grave matter as Mother Nature isn’t always coffin up such nice weather for this holiday.

As promised, a line of strong storms arrived this morning dropping heavy rain and bringing at least one confirmed tornado at Airline and W. Gulf Bank (no injuries, but home damage). Take a look at this still shot of a tornado near Anahuac this morning:

By now you’ve heard about the Bomb Cyclone moving into the west coast--called that because of such a rapid decrease in barometric pressure. By definition, the pressure drops 24millibars in 24 hours. The lower the pressure, the stronger the winds and stronger winds translate to wind energy. In this case, the storm was forecast to drop from 984 millibars to 942 millibars. Winds can increase to 115mph with that kind of pressure, but this is not a hurricane. Hurricanes have their strongest winds around the eye, or center, while this is a different structure (cold core) and strongest wind are outward from the center. Bomb cyclones are more akin to nor’easters.

In simple terms, La Nina is when the waters in the Pacific at the equator are cooler than normal. The opposite, El Nino, indicates that Pacific Ocean water is warmer than normal. These fluctuate from year to year, lasting several months at a time and we can also see neutral conditions when neither is prevalent. Here’s the example of La Nina and El Nino:

The above satellite picture is of Tropical Storm PAMELA in the Pacific currently packing winds of 50mph but forecast to become a Major CAT 3 115mph storm by late Tuesday, moving into the Mexican coast Wednesday. That forecast prompted this viewer question:

I had a quick conversation with my neighbor yesterday about solar panels as he is considering installing some on his roof. This is a pretty typical discussion when we have these long stretches of blue sky, especially after last February’s ERCOT disaster. We don’t talk much about putting in a wind turbine, yet coincidentally Climate Central sent down a fascinating look at just how much power both the sun and the wind can generate. I have graphics! Given today’s sunshine and what we are expecting over the weekend, here is how much power the good ole sun would generate:

I know what you’re thinking about tomorrow’s Astros’ Divisional Opener: How could they NOT open the roof? The amazing weather we’ve had this week bringing clear, calm skies and lower humidity would seem ideal for a baseball game.

The front arrived, the front arrived! As it moved across the coast yesterday evening, my click2pin fan who calls herself psychogranny took the cover photo in Sargent, Matagorda County. She writes:

You might recall I <a href="https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2021/06/02/a-new-hurricane-helper/" target="_blank">blogged</a> about Saildrones at the beginning of summer: just like aerial drones fly directly into a hurricane, these Saildrones are designed to literally sail right into the winds and waves of hurricanes. And that’s exactly what happened this week with Hurricane SAM. Five of these sailing instruments have been operating this summer. Here’s what these Saildrones look like:

The best rain days right now are Tuesday to Thursday, but some rain is in the forecast all the way into the weekend.

There is nothing like a late September cold front to bring much-needed relief from summer’s oppressive heat and also make us start thinking that fall is taking over and hurricane season is diminishing.

You woke up to it, didn’t you!? Amazing fall weather that I’ve promised you since last week! Welcome to fall (which I really think should be capitalized Fall, but that’s a different argument). Anyway, fall technically falls today at 2:21 p.m. in Houston, known as the Autumnal Equinox. By most people’s understanding, this is the day of equal daylight and equal darkness.

These first cold fronts often fizzle so it’s nice to see one on the maps that is really going to make it! In fact, this one may arrive a little early.

Last year’s Hurricane Laura, slamming into the Lake Charles area at 1am, prompted the following viewer question:

As many of us continue to clean up from Hurricane Nicholas (I thankfully had only minor damage in Galveston), I thought I’d bring that smiling ray of fall front hope to us all -- and, honestly, it’s looking like a pretty good bet!

All tragedies are just that and there is not a competition among them, but certainly the 20-year anniversary of 9/11 overshadows the landfall of Hurricane Carla, which struck Matagorda Bay on Sept. 11, 1961.

I remember how purely blue the sky shone and how crisp the air felt that day. A September front with building high pressure whisked the clouds off the coast to leave a perfectly quiet canvas that would soon turn horrific.

Climate Central pushed out a “hot topic” graphic this week illustrating the 50-year rise in August temperatures here in Houston. The average temperature is higher by almost five degrees:

We know it gets hot aound here and so for us not to reach 100F this year is certainly worth a mention. Of course, as you’ll see, we can easily get to the century mark in September so don’t get too comfortable in your wool sweaters just yet! Also, Hobby did record 100 in June and Galveston made 97 just this past Monday which is their hottest temperature so far this year.

First and foremost, prayers and healing to the folks in Louisiana and Mississippi. IDA did a number on them yesterday and continues to threaten flooding and tornadoes this morning. As we know from experience, recovery is a slow process.

Every Hurricane season I get emails or questions during my speeches about stopping a hurricane, especially when they are still small disturbances. Before they grow into these large, deadly, destructive monsters, isn’t there something we can do to stop them dead in their tracks?

Since yesterday, we’ve been watching this Caribbean tropical disturbance which now has an 80% chance to develop into a depression by the weekend. To see a satellite loop of the above, go <a href="https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=02&length=24" target="_blank">here</a>, courtesy NOAA.

The heat is on and the tropics continue to heat up! Now with HENRI on the move, the next name on the list is IDA--here’s a trivial pursuit answer for you: the “I” storm is the most retired of hurricane names. Take that for what it’s worth but the “I” storms tend to cause trouble.

Today’s cover shot of the gold and blue moon is, like most blue moon pictures, filtered and photo-shopped. Supposedly, you can actually see a blue moon if the dust particles in the atmosphere are super small and blocking enough red light to allow just the blue light to scatter--but those are rare (<i>For example, the moon appeared blue across the entire Earth for about two years after the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883 -- universetoday.com</i>). I’ve never received an actual blue moon pic, but I get great Click2Pins of moons, like this waxing gibbous moon from last night:

You may have heard that the July Fry affected the WHOLE world last month! July 2021 ranks as the HOTTEST MONTH on record across the globe, according to NOAA’s most recent <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/its-official-july-2021-was-earths-hottest-month-on-record" target="_blank">report</a>.

As Tropical Storm Fred bears down on Panama City, Florida, two more tropical features have flared up: Grace and TD8 (Henri is the next name). Grace is just south of Haiti/Dominican Republic and will continue to move west toward the Cancun area and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico:

The Florida Panhandle is the short answer as to where FRED will make an eventual landfall (although we should count the Florida Keys, too, which FRED will crossover tomorrow, so technically a landfall over that island chain). Here’s the official 2pm forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Fred formed last night at 10pm CDT and is literally limping along to the West Northwest at 16mph, which will take the storm over the mountains of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. That could change the storm’s path a bit, but the National Hurricane Center still has the forecast cone below with a track into Apalachicola late Sunday/Early Monday:

Dubai in the United Arab Emirates is situated right on the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman just across the way and, consequently, they get plenty of cloud cover. In fact, it’s often called The City in the Clouds:

When cooler air moves over warmer water, especially during summer in the ‘tropical’ gulf area, we often see waterspouts! A lot of people think of these as just tornadoes filled with water, but the structure is considerably different! Granted, there are thunderstorms that create funnel clouds which become tornadoes (when a funnel reaches to land, it’s then a tornado) and, in fact, this funnel cloud below occurred in a thunderstorm last Tuesday that blossomed over Galveston Bay. You can see Moody Gardens Hotel at the bottom of the pic as this storm went right over Offatts Bayou.

You may have heard about a strong Earthquake off Japan’s coast yesterday at 3:22pm CDT (5:22am Japan Time). Our KPRC 2 Anchors in Tokyo, Keith Garvin and Christine Noel, reported that the minor shaking lasted less than 30 seconds and felt a bit like standing on a rocking boat. ExactTrack radar detected the quake 130 miles from Tokyo as you can see in my cover graphic.

Look at that cover picture and you can see just how busy the Pacific continues to be this year! And the GFS model suggests that it will stay that way through at least the middle of the month:

August fronts do happen, but rarely, and one is slated to limp through here next Tuesday/Wednesday. The models both push this through although the American seems to be a bit more optimistic. Here’s the latest from the American model--just follow that green precipitation line going through here and into the Gulf. That’s the front!

I felt sure we’d make 100F over the weekend and we came close (Feels Like Temps were 103-105 and will be again today). For Saturday/Sunday Highs BUSH made 98/97, Hobby 97/96, Sugar Land 97/96--those were the hottest. Galveston came in at 90 both days with Wharton a cool 93 and 94. While we were sunny and hot, we were also sandy and hot. Just look at these dusty sunsets:

This week I’ve been busy keeping up with rainfall amounts since May 1st and the reader response has been strong--everyone is curious as to just how much rain we’ve had. So I put together two maps, rather than just lists. First, the surrounding Metro Area:

Houston, TX Here we are the end of May with the official beginning of hurricane season on Monday and weve already had two named storms--Arthur and Bertha--with a third possible. The photo above is Cristobal in 2014 and because the list of hurricane names rotates every six years, that C storm is back on the list. In fact, only 1951 has recorded three tropical or subtropical systems before June 1st: one in January, followed by Hurricane Able and a tropical depression in May. Well, for starters there were 17 depressions, 12 of those became storms, 8 of which became hurricanes (three major hurricanes). Notably, a January start will make for a long year and the 1951 season didnt end until December 11th!

On Sunday, Jan. 19, an eight-minute test took place, one all-important test to make sure that if SpaceX should need to abort after launch then the crew could safely make it back down to Earth. credit SpaceXThe capsule, pictured below, fell perfectly and safely to the ocean water. Watch that first as its very interesting and helpful when understanding what really took place. As of this writing the launch itself is at a 60% chance of happening as the sky really needs to be rain- and cloud-free. But its comforting to know that if things do go awry during the launch, there is an emergency plan.

The NHC anticipates a 60% chance for an ABOVE-normal season, a 30% chance for an AVERAGE season, and a 10% chance for a BELOW-normal season. Water is the fuel for hurricanes in that warm water creates warm air and that warm air rises into the atmosphere creating showers and thunderstorms. Above Normal Water water temps in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic. Courtesy tropicaltidbitsBut if that rising air is disrupted by the wind then, of course, the storms wont form. And when you already have storms moving over the ocean you bypass that first step of rising air to create the storms to form a hurricane!

This week, with near-record highs every day, it might seem like were always talking about a warmer world -- and we are. This year is now expected to be in the top five warmest years for the world and were not even halfway through it! Scientifically, in a warmer world, it only stands to reason that the fuel for hurricanes, which is warmer water, will create stronger storms -- and it is. Last Monday, a study of 40 years of data was released examining satellite information to determine stronger hurricanes over the period, in line with yearly warmer temperatures. and his paper in 2018 proposed that hurricanes are slower-moving over land due to a warmer world thereby causing more flooding (e.g.

Tropical Storm Arthur said hello over the weekend, starting our hurricane season -- once again -- before the official June 1 date. So there are two obvious questions:Does an early start mean well have a shorter season? In 2003, we had an April system show up and the season didnt end that year until December 11th. Hurricane Jerry October 1989, our latest hurricane to strike the Texas coastDoes an early start mean well have more hurricanes? What can we learn from an early start?

Houston, TX Models for tomorrows flooding are updating and I wanted to share with you some of what we are looking at here at the KPRC2 Severe Weather Center. First, we always like to compare the Euro and American models and I can tell you that while the Euro does have a good reputation for more accuracy, the two are both strong. In fact, the Euro USES American satellite information so without the American influx of data, the Euro wouldnt be where it is. The RPM has only 1-2 of rain for Houston with perhaps 2-3 in spots with more down south:RPMThe HRRR on the other hand shows heavy rain south of I-10 and into downtown. If we do not see heavy rain in southeast Texas then consider ourselves plain lucky.

HOUSTON Ive written before about the role of airplanes taking and reporting weather observations as they ascend and descend, as well as at flight altitude. Known as the AMDAR program, these commercial aircraft flights traditionally produce 700,000 observations a day (temperature, humidity, and wind). With stay home orders around the globe, there are weather offices with no weather person to physically read and report the data! In addition, the WMO notes that over time even automatic stations will need repair and calibration, so we may see more data dropping out in the next weeks or months. Still, and thankfully, there are a LOT of ways to observe the weather these days.

Houston, TX The coronavirus clearly dominates the headlines, but, over the next few weeks, different forecasts for the Atlantic 2020 Hurricane Season will be edging into our news cycle. Normal count is for 12 tropical storms and of those 6 become hurricanes with 3 becoming major hurricanes. ACCUWEATHER published their forecast this week calling for not only a higher than normal number but also adds the number of impacts to the United States. You can read the full Accuweather hurricane forecast right here. Ive also talked about Dale Links forecast which doesnt predict number of hurricanes but rather where theyll go.