Looking out for Lidia

CREDIT: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

After a fabulous fall weekend and another one on the way, you may not be thinking much about the tropics today! But Mainland Mexico, including Houston’s favorite Puerto Vallarta, are expected to go through a Category 2 hurricane by tomorrow night. TS LIDIA currently has 65 mph winds but is expected to approach landfall with 100 mph winds along with 4-8″ of rain and a battering storm surge at the coast. Here’s the forecast cone and I’ve marked Banderas Bay where Puerto Vallarta is on the closeup shot:

CREDIT: National Hurricane Center
CREDIT: National Hurricane Center

Not only is Puerto Vallarta in the forecast cone, but to the south of where the storm is expected to make landfall. That will be the more dangerous part for storm surge and wind. Are they bracing for it? Doesn’t seem so and it’s beautiful there today. I reached out to a friend there who is a permanent resident and he replied “As of now all is normal!”

I found a pretty good webcam from the Hyatt hotel site down there right here. You can find a whole list of Puerto Vallarta webcams here. Granted, PV is well-protected by the bay and often experiences the “near miss” which may explain their wait and see approach.

In other tropical news, there is now a flare up in the Gulf of Mexico with a 20% chance to develop in the next couple of days.

CREDIT: National Hurricane Center

This area likely won’t actually develop and is expected to miss Texas as it races toward the southeast, but between that and leftovers from LIDIA, our rain chance for Tuesday to Thursday has jumped to as high as 60%, especially Wednesday at the coast. Here’s the American Model:

American Model CREDIT:Tropicaltidbits.com

We’ll continue to track it all and I’m watching for yet another fabulous fall weekend coming our way!


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About the Author:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with four decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.