For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southeastern United States: An area of low pressure moved inland overnight along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, and is now located over south-central Alabama. The low is expected to continue to move over land today, and tropical cyclone development is not expected. However, locally heavy rains associated with this system will continue to spread northeastward across portions of the southeastern United States over the next day or so. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.
Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Pasch
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 12N southward, moving westward 15 knots. This feature remains poorly organized and drier air associated with Saharan dust is preventing any shower or thunderstorm activity near the wave axis.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is evident over eastern Venezuela near the wave axis.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is also evident from 00N to 05N between 44W and 50W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Squalls associated with a small but vigorous low pressure area that went ashore over the western Florida Panhandle overnight delivered a peak wind of 48 kt to Pensacola, Florida. Latest observations show SW winds off the coast of the western Florida Panhandle and the Alabama coast gradually diminishing as the low moves farther inland.
Farther south, clusters of strong thunderstorms were active across much of the west-central Gulf. This was related with a negatively tilted trough in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere moving across the northwest Gulf. Outflows from these thunderstorms brought gusts to gale force across much of the west- central Gulf. Buoy 42055 located at 22N94W registered a brief sustained wind to 35 kt under a convective cell late yesterday evening. Per buoy reports and an altimeter satellite pass, wave heights increased to 10 ft over parts of the western Gulf overnight due to the convective winds. The thunderstorms have since dissipated and winds and seas are rapidly subsiding over the western Gulf accordingly.
Meanwhile, a frontal boundary has stalled from southeast Louisiana to the mouth of the Rio Grande, and will likely start to dissipate today. Farther east, a surface trough reaches from the western Florida Panhandle to just off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula. A new cluster of convection is starting to develop over the north- central Gulf near 26N90W, where the upper trough is interacting with the surface trough. Moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf, with slightly higher winds and seas over the Straits of Florida.
For the forecast, rough seas over parts of the western Gulf are associated with outflows from strong thunderstorms that were active over the central Gulf but are diminishing currently, allowing the wave heights to subside through the morning. Farther east, the trough reaching from Pensacola, Florida to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula will move to the northwest of the area through tonight. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds Tue and Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Thu and weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri.
The main drivers impacting Caribbean weather continue to be a strong subtropical ridge north of the area and lower pressure over the eastern Pacific and southern Mexico. Scatterometer satellite passes from the past several hours show fresh to strong E winds off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia, as well as a large area of fresh E winds over the northwest Caribbean. Concurrent ship observations and an altimeter satellite pass confirmed 8 to 10 ft seas were still present over the central Caribbean. Buoy observations indicate 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere. This pattern shows there is a subtle weakening trend in place with the areal extent of the strong winds and rough seas decreasing from earlier. This is indicative of a weaker pressure pattern setting up, to include a weaker ridge to the north and rising pressure over Central America. Nonetheless, there is still enough low level moisture and convergence to support clusters of heavy rainfall across much of the Northern Triangle areas of Central America and into southern Mexico. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more information concerning rainfall in these areas.
For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish some today and tonight, then more on Tue as the gradient weakens. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia through the latter part of the week.
The subtropical ridge extends east to west along 31N/32N west of 55W, anchored by 1024 mb high pressure near 31N68W. This is supporting moderate to fresh E trade winds south of 24N and west of 70W with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters, and gentle to moderate breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of 55W. Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N44W to 25N57W to 26N65W. Moderate NW winds follow the front, along with 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted off the African coast north of 20N. Elsewhere gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. Saharan Air and suspended dust cover much of the trade wind region and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure extending along 31N/32N will remain nearly stationary through Tue while it gradually weakens. It will shift eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue, then subside into Wed.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen