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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from near 31N75W to inland South Florida will progress eastward across the western Atlantic for the next few days. Southwest gale-force winds precede the front north of about 29N and east to 65W, and northwest gale-force winds are behind the front. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass captured the gale-force northwest winds as they begin to filter in behind the front. The gale-force winds both ahead and behind the front are generally confined to north of 29N between 72W and 77W. They will continue through this morning behind the front and last into this afternoon ahead of the front. Seas with these winds are in the range of 9 to 12 ft. These near-gale to gale-force winds and very rough seas will shift eastward with the cold front to north of 29N between 62W and 67W by early this afternoon. As this front weakens through this evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

THe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04N18W and to 02N25W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 00N34W and to just south of the equator to near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the trough east of 22W to along the coast of Africa and within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 31W-46W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to 24N90W and to Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along and north of the frontal boundary east of 87W. Similar activity is over the Straits of Florida and along and just offshore central Cuba. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass nicely depicted north-northeast winds of fresh to strong speeds north of the front over the central gulf. Seas over these waters are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring from 24N to 26N between 93W and 97W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the exit the Gulf this morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas behind the front will continue through this morning. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf near the Texas coast on Thu, then track east-northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri pushing a cold front across the basin. The low is expected to move inland northern Florida late on Fri. This next frontal system will bring increasing winds and seas to the affected waters, as well as widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Caribbean Sea

Broad high pressure is present over the central and eastern Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in northern South America is maintaining fresh to strong trade winds across the central and southeastern Caribbean waters. Partial overnight ASCAT satellite data passes over these areas indicated the presence of these winds. Seas in the areas described are 7-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure described above will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front will push southward across the northwest Caribbean today, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night while decreasing in coverage.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale warning over the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near 31N74W to South Florida. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms moving eastward to the southeast of the front. This activity is noted from 27N to 31N between 70w and 76W. Scattered showers are west of the front from 27N to 29N. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh to strong northwest winds elsewhere west of the front. Seas are 8 to 12 ft west of the front. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds with seas 8 to 10 ft are east of the front to 61W and north of about 28N, with the exception of the gale conditions described under the Special Features section.

The weather pattern for the rest of the tropical Atlantic is tied to high pressure of 1024 mb that is analyzed near 29N41W. A broad ridge extends westward from this high to the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 26N and seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida this morning, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas early this afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are ahead and behind the front, with gale force winds over the waters north of 27N. The gale force winds behind the front end this morning while those east of the front end late this afternoon. Weak low pressure may form along the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front reaching northern Hispaniola. High pressure in its wake will quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over northern Florida, and to north of the area Sat and Sat night. These winds will expand in coverage as they shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over the western waters.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre