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Tropics Watch


Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 week, 5 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near 12W to 20W. The ITCZ continues from 20W to 41W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 140 nm on either sides of The Monsoon Trough and ITCZ between 14W-35W.

Gulf of Mexico

As of 12/2100 UTC, a warm front extends from a 1018 mb low near 90W to north-central Florida near 83W. A stationary front extends south of the 1018 mb low to southern Mexico near 37W with a 1014 mb low along this front near 94W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted particularly near the 1018 mb low, close to the louisiana/mississippi coast from 28N-30N between 85W- 89W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 25N-28N between 84W-93W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds in the north-central Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere.

The front will dissipate as it drifts northward through Friday. Fresh southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf Sunday and Monday. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast Monday night and the northwest Gulf late Monday night followed by strong to near gale force north winds, with gale force possible in the west central and southwest Gulf Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Caribbean Sea

An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic with base reaching the northeast Caribbean. At the surface, a trough extends across the Lesser Antilles from 62W to 61W with scattered showers near this feature. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the remainder of the basin which is inhibiting any deep convection. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin.

Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region through Friday as high pressure in the central Atlantic shifts eastward. Trades across the central Caribbean will increase early next week. Fresh trades along with moderate north to northeast swell are expected across the tropical north Atlantic waters this upcoming weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, may impact the northeast Caribbean and northern tropical north Atlantic waters through Friday.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front is draped across the western Atlantic from 69W to south-central Florida near 80W. Showers are along and north of this front from 27N-31N between 75W-80W. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 42W to 39W with scattered moderate convection seen from 30N-34W between 34W- 41W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1039 mb high centered near 28W.

The stationary front will weaken to a trough on Friday. Fresh to strong northeast winds will continue north of the front through early Friday. Southerly winds will increase Friday night and Saturday, ahead of a weak cold front expected to move west across the northern waters. A stronger cold front may move into the northwest portion off northeast Florida Tuesday night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Akr

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature