The axis of a tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 18N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 49W and 56W. The wave may enhance showers over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean tue into wed.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W from 20N southward to the coast of northern Colombia moving at 10-15 kt. No convection over water is noted, but low-clouds are seen near the wave axis on nighttime visible imagery, and scattered thunderstorms are occurring over portions of northern Colombia near the wave axis.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13W to 19W. The ITCZ extends from 19W to 45W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 06N between 17W and 22W, and from 04N to 07N between 26W and 41W.
Gulf of Mexico
A surface trough extends across the southeast Gulf from near Florida bay to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. An upper-level trough axis extends from near the texas/louisiana border to across western Cuba. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous moderate and scattered strong convection from central Cuba to across the straits of Florida to southern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen elsewhere over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 84W. Most of the Gulf between 88W and 93W is free of significant shower activity. Low pressure over the Texas panhandle combined with favorable upper-level dynamics is leading to areas of strong to severe thunderstorms over southern and central Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already spreading over the western Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of western Louisiana, Texas and northeastern Mexico. Expect some strong thunderstorms over these waters this morning between 1000-1500 UTC, especially off the middle and lower Texas coast. An earlier ascat pass showed moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across most of the Gulf. However, strong winds were seen over portions of the eastern Gulf and straits of Florida.
The low pressure trough over the eastern Gulf will produce fresh to strong winds and building seas east of 90W today as it slowly lifts northward across the northeast Gulf. A trough or weak cold front will move into the northwest Gulf and weaken during the middle of the week. Haze and smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility at times over the southwest Gulf.
An upper-level trough axis extends from near the texas/louisiana border to across western Cuba supporting scattered moderate to strong convection over central Cuba and the waters north of 20N between 78W and 82W. This is adding to heavy rain that has already fallen over parts of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are diminishing over Honduras and northeast Nicaragua. An earlier ascat pass showed fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere except gentle in the southwest Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean through the early part of the week, then remain fresh through fri night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras through tue night. A tropical wave along 75W will cross the western Caribbean through wed.
A surface trough over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and an upper-level trough over Cuba are enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection over the straits of Florida, Florida Keys, southern Florida and the Atlantic waters south of 29N and west of 78W. An earlier ascat pass showed fresh to strong east to southeast winds over much of this area, as well as the northwest Bahamas, mainly in areas of convection. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue there for much of the day and push northward as the day progresses. A couple of weak surface troughs located in the area from 20N to 30N between 63W and 70W are producing isolated to scattered showers in the area. A 1024 mb high is near 54W. A 1020 mb high is near 38W. A surface trough is analyzed from 40W to 54W. Isolated showers are along the trough axis.
A surface trough along 69W will drift westward and weaken today. Another trough is expected to develop near the Florida coast later today, resulting in fresh winds and building seas offshore as it lifts northward into tue. Winds and seas may increase over the northern waters east of 70W late wed through fri as another low pressure trough develops east of the area.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky