The Monsoon Trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 09W then continues to 16W. The ITCZ extends from 16W to 30W to the coast of Brazil near 41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-04N between 10W-37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01S-04N between 46W-52W.
Gulf of Mexico
A 1022 mb high is centered over the coast of Mississippi near 88W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of Mexico, with weakest winds near the high center and strongest winds over the northwest Gulf. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the northwest Gulf.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 88W. Upper level moisture is over the north Gulf north of 24N, while strong subsidence is over the south Gulf.
Weak high pressure ridging over the Gulf will shift eastward through mon as low pressure develops near the Texas coast by this afternoon. The low pressure, along with a trailing cold front, will track eastward to the northeast Gulf through mon afternoon while weakening, then across Florida on tue. Another weak low pressure area will move into the northwest Gulf tue night, slowly move east- southeastward through wed night, then retreat to the northwest thereafter.
The tail end of a weakening stationary front is over the Leeward Islands from 60W to 69W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front to include Puerto Rico and east Hispaniola. Elsewhere, scattered showers are along the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and north Colombia.
A weakening stationary front to the south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will dissipate this morning. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh winds near the coast of Colombia during the afternoons and night time hours through wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds on thu night.
A cold front is over the west Atlantic from 72W to west Cuba near 80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic from 47W to the Leeward Islands near 60W. Scattered showers are also within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough is analyzed along 54W from 14N- 20N. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of this trough. To the east, a surface ridge prevails, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 23W.
The west Atlantic cold front will reach from near 69W to 73W, where it will begin to dissipate to central Cuba by early tonight. The remaining cold front portion north of 26N will move east of 65W early mon. A series of cold fronts will move across the area during the upcoming week. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the waters near the Bahamas and south Florida mon through tue night, and possibly later in the week. Multi sets of northerly swell will propagate through the northeast portion of the basin during this upcoming week, with the most significant one expected tue into early wed.
Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Formosa