For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Brown
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved into the NW Caribbean today and stretches westward from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula along 20N, then become stationary across the peninsula to low pressure of 1014 mb near 21N95.5W. Midday scatterometer data showed gale-force NW to W-NW winds occurring between the Mexican coast and the trough and low, to the south of 21.5N. Altimeter data a short time afterwards suggested seas in this area at 8 to 14 ft. Strong NE winds to 30 kt prevail east of the trough to the Yucatan Channel and extend northward to 23N. Seas in this zone are 7 to 12 ft. A 1027 mb high center was analyzed across eastern Mexico, to the west of the low over the Gulf. A 1030 mb high currently over northern Louisiana will move east-southeastward later this evening and tonight, and should cause the front to sink southward as a cold front into southern Mexico. In response, winds and seas across the southwestern Gulf should gradually subside tonight through Wed, with gale-force winds offshore of Veracruz expected to end around sunrise Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone border along 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W to 02N38W to 01N50W. Scattered strong convection is along the African coast and extends westward from 09W to 18W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 06N between 20W and 38W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is across the SW Gulf, from the front northward to 24N, between 91W and 95W. Moderate to locally heavy rainshowers are seen to the west of the surface trough and across eastern portions of the Bay of Campeche.
Other than the stationary front mentioned in the Special Features section, a broad surface ridge is dominating the rest of the Gulf, centered on a 1030 mb high over north Louisiana. Fresh to strong NE to E-NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found across the west-central Gulf N of 23N. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present just offshore from Texas and Louisiana. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient will support gale- force winds off the Veracruz area through tonight. Conditions across the Gulf will improve late tonight through Wed as the front and low move southward and dissipate inland across Mexico. Strong southerly flow will set up across the northern Gulf by Wed night ahead of the next approaching front that will push off the Texas coast on Fri.
A cold front extends from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula along 20N. Fresh NE winds prevail N of the front, across the Yucatan Channel and adjacent western Cuban waters. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen along the front, focused along the Mexican coast.
The Mid-Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1018 mb high near 26N55W to the southern Bahamas. This feature is supporting a typical trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters of western Panama and Costa Rica south of 20N. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE trade winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail across the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted just south of the Mona and Windward Passages. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the Mid-Atlantic ridge will shift eastward as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic through Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. The stationary front across the NW Caribbean will sink southward and weaken tonight, with fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft behind it, before conditions slowly improve Wed and Wed night. The front will gradually stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by tonight before dissipating later in the week. Strong high pressure will slide eastward across the Gulf coast states and into the western Atlantic late Wed through Fri, and act to freshen the trade wind flow across central and eastern portions of the basin Thu afternoon through Sat.
A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N58W southwestward through the central Bahamas, then continues across central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 90 nm southeast of this boundary. Moderate to fresh N-NW to NW winds are seen behind the front, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Another cold front curves southwestward from the Azores across 31N32W to 23N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the front to 25W. A surface trough is along 35W, from 11N to 17N, where scattered light showers are noted.
Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N between the Africa coast and 58W/first cold front. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 33W. To the west, light to gentle with locally moderate NNE to ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident from the Equator to 20N between 33W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stretch from near 31N56W to central Cuba by Wed morning, and reach from 31N51W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds will persist behind the front through Wed. The front will briefly become stationary along 23N Thu and gradually dissipating through Fri morning, as high pressure shifts eastward into the Atlantic behind it. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves east of Bermuda.
Posted 8 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling