The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 09W to 23W. The ITCZ continues from 37W to 50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the coast of Liberia extending offshore to about 250 nm, and additional activity is seen from 02N-06N between 15W-22W north of The Monsoon Trough. North of the ITCZ, scattered showers are possible with broken to overcast mix of clouds west of 32W to the coast of Brazil.
Gulf of Mexico
A 1018 mb low is located over the northern Gulf near 87W. A stationary front extends from 82W to the low to 90W, then continues as a dissipating stationary front to 96W. A surface trough extends southward from the low from 88W to 86W. Radar indicates showers and tstorms are present east of the low pressure from 28N to the coast of Alabama and west of 86W. The most recent ascat pass shows moderate to fresh southeast winds in the northeast Gulf with gentle wind speeds across much of the remainder of the basin.
A weak stationary front extending from the Florida big bend southwest will dissipate later today. Fresh to locally strong south return flow will develop mon into mon night in the west Gulf ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will push into the northwest Gulf on tue, then extend from the Florida big bend to the bay of Campeche by wed afternoon. Gale force northwest to north winds are possible west of the front along the coast of Mexico tue night and wed. The front will likely stall across the Gulf and begin weakening thu.
Ridging at 500 mb prevails across much of the Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection along the coast of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua is been enhance by the Pacific Monsoon Trough south of 13N. Scattered showers and tstorms are also over Hispaniola and adjacent coastal waters, enhanced by moisture from the tail end of a stationary front that ends over the Atlantic near 67W. The latest ascat pass shows moderate to fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh n-ne winds are seen off the east coast of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, with similar winds also seen in the windward passage.
A weak Bermuda high is promoting generally moderate to fresh trades across the region through early mon. Winds will strengthen and seas will build over the central and eastern Caribbean as well as the tropical north Atlantic mon afternoon through wed night as a stronger Bermuda high dominates the southwest North Atlantic. Conditions are likely to again become more quiescent on thu, as the high moves well to the east of the waters.
A stationary front is over the western Atlantic from 73W to 80W. A weak 1019 mb low is near 73W with a surface trough extending southward from the low to 72W. Isolated showers are from 26N-29N between 69W-74W. A stationary front extends from 54W to 67W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the stationary front, north of 25N and east of 58W. Latest ascat shows a weak surface trough from 49W to 52W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under surface high pressure ridging, anchored by a 1033 mb high near 25W.
A stationary front over the far northern waters will lift northward as a warm front later today. Fresh to strong easterly flow will develop across the waters northeast of the Bahamas tonight through mon as a strong Bermuda high passes eastward across the western Atlantic. A cold front is expected to move off the southeast U.S. Coast wed and wed night, then stall over the northern waters thu into thu night.
Posted 1 hour, 30 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mmt