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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force NE to E winds will continue to pulse within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia for the next several nights, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the Colombian/Panamanian low and high pressure over the western Atlantic. Seas are forecast to reach 12-16 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N30W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N-04N between 12W-16W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf from a 1023 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf near 28N84W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are possibly ongoing off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where a local overnight trough may be dissipating. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas evident across the Gulf. Dense fog is setting up along the nearshore waters off the Texas coast and off southwest Louisiana. This is due to moist SE winds reaching the cooler shelf waters near the coast. No fog is noted elsewhere at this time. No shower activity is note as well.

For the forecast, the weak surface ridging building across northern Gulf will persist through Fri, then lift northward. Gentle to moderate SE winds should prevail across most of the Gulf Sat through Mon, supporting areas of dense fog in the nearshore waters of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Patchy sea fog is possible over elsewhere NW Gulf starting late today or this evening and persisting through into early next week, possibly limiting visibility to 3 to 5 nm.

Caribbean Sea

A persistent ridge north of the area along roughly 27N/28N is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the eastern Caribbean, strong to near-gale winds over the central Caribbean reaching gale force off the mountainous terrain of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Fresh to strong NE winds are also evident in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate NE winds are observed over the northwest Caribbean.

Seas are 10 to 15 ft off Colombia, and 7 to 10 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Caribbean.

A few showers are noted in regional radar moving through mainly the Windward Islands and into the southeast Caribbean. Scattered showers are possible in the Windward Passage between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba. Fairly dry conditions persist elsewhere and no major shower activity is noted.

For the forecast, the ridging north of the region will continue support fresh to strong E trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through at least Mon night, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early morning hours. Fresh NE winds should develop in the Windward Passage will persist through Mon, with fresh to strong winds Sat and Sun. Fresh to strong E trades should develop in the Gulf of Honduras nightly beginning Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 32N48W to 26N70W to 25N70W, with a trailing trough reaching farther west to West Palm Beach, Florida. A few showers are likely ongoing along the front, north of 28N. Gentle to moderate winds are observed north of 25N west of 35W, and moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropical Atlantic. Farther east, another front reaches from 32N13W, east of Madeira, across the western Cabo Verde Islands to 25N30W, then transitions to a shear line to 24N38W. Strong high pressure north of this front is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds from 20N to 28N east of 35W, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere E of 35W. Northerly swell prevails east of 60W, with seas reaching 8 to 12 ft in most areas, and as high as 15 ft over the eastern Atlantic. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in open waters west of 60W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the stationary front over the western Atlantic will dissipate later this morning. Another weak cold front will move from west to east across the waters north of 28N tonight and Fri. High pressure building north of the area behind the second front will support fresh to strong E winds across the waters south of 22N late Fri through at least Mon night. N swell combined with E wind waves in this area will produce combined seas up to 10 ft Sat night into Sun north of Haiti.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature