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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2022. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 week ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening Azores high will tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of Morocco, generating N-NE gales in the marine zone Agadir and the northern part of Tarfaya beginning tonight at 09/0300 UTC and persisting through at least 09/1200 UTC Thursday. Expect seas of 12-15 ft within the area of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-07N between 30W-45W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N91W to a 1014 mb low pressure system in the NW Gulf near 28N95W. Regional radar indicates that this system is producing a line of showers and thunderstorms across the northern Gulf of Mexico, east of 91W. A surface trough southeast of this boundary is also producing isolated showers and thunderstorms in the north-central Gulf, north of 27N. A 1019 mb high pressure center near Lake Okeechobee is generating gentle to moderate anticyclonic breezes across the basin with 2-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure along the Mississippi valley will shift E today, and the stationary front will transition to a cold front before dissipating tonight. A ridge will build westward across the basin, with a high pressure cell remaining over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will set-up across the western and central Gulf on Fri and Sat, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sat morning. Increasing winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible behind the front.

Caribbean Sea

Ridging from subtropical high pressure is interacting with low pressure over the Colombian Basin to produce enhanced easterly flow over the region. Recent scatterometer data provides observations of fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean with fresh to strong winds expected near the coast of Colombia. These winds are generating 8-10 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean extending from the coast of Colombia and Panama to 16N. The remainder of the eastern and north central Caribbean is dominated by gentle to moderate easterly winds with seas 5-7 ft. Trades in the northwest Caribbean are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge across the northern Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere except in the NW Caribbean where mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected through Thu. High pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic Thu night, and fresh to locally strong NE winds will develop in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and S of Hispaniola through Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the special features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the east Atlantic. A strong 1037 mb high pressure near the Azores is the dominate feature. The interaction between this high pressure and low pressure near the ITCZ is producing gentle to moderate E-SE winds west of 65W with 4-6 ft seas. Between 65W and 50W, moderate to fresh easterly flow with 6-8 ft seas are noted on scatterometer and altimeter data. East of 50W, fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail with 8-10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will push a cold front off NE Florida by this evening. The front will move across the northern forecast waters through Thu night before dissipating. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front, producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 22N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 22N Thu night through Sun night.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory states that low to medium ash concentration is expected near and SW of the volcano.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Flynn

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature