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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi
Special Features
Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic ridge north of Puerto Rico near 22N64W and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea through early next week. These winds are expected to peak at near-gale to gale force during the night time hours off the coast of Colombia through Mon night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border, then extends southwestward to 04N21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near and south of these features from 01N to 08N between Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 04N21W across 04N36W to north of Belem, Brazil near 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed up to 70 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 24W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A surface ridge extending from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico dominates the entire Gulf. Fresh with locally strong southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are present at the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche. Moderate SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern United States will shift eastward into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds over much of the Gulf, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off northwestern Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon.
Caribbean Sea
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
The southwestern portion of a stationary front reaches southwestward from the southeast Bahamas across central Cuba to west of the Cayman Islands. Patchy showers are seen up to 40 nm along either side of this feature. A trade-wind disturbance is causing scattered showers at the eastern basin, including the Leeward Islands. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge is supporting a trade-wind pattern for much of the basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are found at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident at the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.
For the forecast, other than the south-central basin, fresh trades will prevail elsewhere in the basin through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning this evening and persist through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and continue into early next week.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends southwestward from the eastern Azores to 31N49W, then continues as a stationary front to the southwest Bahamas. Scattered showers are occurring up to 40 nm northwest, and 80 nm southeast of this boundary. A trade-wind disturbance is causing similar conditions east of the Lesser Antilles from 15N to 18N between 50W and 58W. A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Amapa State, Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.
Fresh to strong NE winds with 9 to 11 seas in large NNE swell are noted up to 350 nm behind the stationary front, east of 70W. Between the Bahamas and 70W, moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present from the stationary front to 28N. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas exist east of northern Florida north of 28N and west of 70W. A 1023 mb high at the central Atlantic near 27N39W is promoting light to gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell north of 20N between 28W and the stationary front/southeast Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to locally fresh WNW to N to NNE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are found north of 19N between the African coast and 28W. Farther southwest, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from 05N to 20N between 28W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the northeastern portion of the stationary front will transition back to a cold front this afternoon and move southeastward through Thu night, reaching from near 25N55W to 23N63W early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds and high seas will continue behind this front north of 26N and east of 64W through tonight. High pressure will settle in near 29N66W late Fri, with a ridge extending westward to central Florida. Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore northeast Florida Fri night and last into Sat night as a weak boundary moves just offshore southeastern Georgia and northeast Florida.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Chan
