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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 5 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W to 00N38W. The ITCZ begins near 00N38W and continues to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 09N between 07W to 24W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 30W to 38W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front extends from near Panama City, FL, to the SW Gulf offshore of Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center in the Bay of Campeche, ahead of the cold front. Moderate to fresh cyclonic flow is around the trough in the southwest Gulf while gentle anticyclonic flow is in the NE Gulf. Winds behind the front in the NW Gulf are moderate to fresh from the NE. Seas are 4-6 ft in the western Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural fires over southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to continue for several more days.

The stationary front will remain in the northern Gulf through this morning. The eastern part of the front will push southward to the SE Gulf by Fri evening. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Generally fresh easterly trades cover the majority of the basin, except fresh to strong SE winds are likely still occurring north of Honduras in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. A mid-upper level anticyclonic ridge aloft north of the Greater Antilles is maintaining fairly dry conditions across the basin, limiting shower activity to a few training cells in the trade wind flow. Seas range from 4-6 ft and are up to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds over much of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely in the central Caribbean on Sun and into early next week as high pressure builds to the north. Fresh to strong southeast winds in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of Honduras, will diminish Thu. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America are expected to continue through the end of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

An outflow boundary moved across northern Florida yesterday evening generating showers and thunderstorms that pushed offshore of NE Florida. An area of ongoing showers and thunderstorms is over the western Atlantic from 29N to 31N and west of 77W. Elsewhere, a broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic, anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 28N63W and near 34N23W. This ridge is responsible for a large area of gentle to moderate winds, 3 to 5 ft seas, and fair weather across most of the central and western Atlantic Ocean, north of 20N, east of 50W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters south of 20N. The only other surface feature of note is continuous troughing over the eastern Atlantic extending from 31N32W to 26N35W.

A cold front will move east of northern Florida Thu night, and reach from 31N76W to the Straits of Florida on Fri. The northern part of the front will continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through Sat night. High pressure will prevail across the region Sun through Mon.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mora

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature