For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2023. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 17 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
The monsoon trough axis extends from enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near Freetown and to near 07N20W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N30W and to 03N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the trough between 13-20W, and also along the coast of Africa from 03N to 08N. Scattered moderate convection is present within 300 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-40W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-43W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is helping to generate scattered showers and along the coast of southern Costa Rica and northern Panama.
Gulf Of Mexico
A cold front is analyzed from Punta Gorda, Florida southwestward to 25N90W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico. A recent ASCAT data pass revealed a large area of northeast 20-30 kt winds behind the front over the NW Gulf. Seas of 8-10 ft generated by these winds are being reported by the buoys in the NW Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near and up to 120 nm north of the front between 94W and the Mexican coast, while isolated showers are possible along and near the remainder of the front.
A recent ASCAT data pass revealed fresh to strong northeast winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche associated with the Yucatan Peninsula trough that moved offshore during the overnight hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche with this trough. This activity appears to be further aided by a small upper impulse riding along the western periphery of a broad upper-level anticyclone that extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to the southwestern Gulf. The present gradient in place supports gentle to moderate and locally fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft are south of the cold front, including the Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from near Fort Myers, Florida to 25N89W and to southern Texas by early This evening, then gradually dissipate through Fri. Strong high pressure building behind the front will shift eastward through Fri as a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. This next front may move over the far northern Gulf on Sat afternoon, then stall, weaken and dissipate by early Mon. No significant impacts on winds and seas are expected from this front. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will linger over the southeastern and south-central Gulf waters Fri night through Sun.
An Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from near Bermuda to near 20N70W. This feature continues to maintain a northeast to east trade wind flow pattern across most of the Caribbean Basin. Convergent trades are producing isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica and Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of 6-8 ft are near the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and just north of Barranquilla, Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are observed across the eastern and central basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 5-6 ft seas are over the northwestern and southwestern sections of the basin. The exception is gentle to moderate monsoonal winds along with 3-5 ft seas just north of Panama.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through this afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Aerial coverage of the strong winds will increase through Sat night as high pressure builds north of the area. Winds will slowly diminish through Sun night.
A cold front extends from New England southwestward to 31N77W and to inland central Florida near Melbourne, Florida. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with seas to 8 ft are northwest of the front. Isolated showers are possible near the front. A stationary front is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N63W to 24N74W and dissipating to the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northeast winds, with seas of 8-12 ft in northeast swell are near and northwest of the stationary front to 63W. Isolated showers are seen near and up to 60 nm south of this boundary. A rather robust upper-level trough extends from 31N49W to 20N52W and to a base near 08N59W. An upper-level low appears to be forming along the trough near 25N51W. An increasing area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 32N between 44W-53W. A surface trough is attended by low-level moisture, with possible isolated showers east of Trinidad and Tobago from 07N to 15N between 51W-57W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.
Elsewhere, the gradient in place is allowing for gentle to moderate northeast to east winds along with seas of 5-7 ft south of 27N and west of 65W, and gentle to moderate southeast to south winds between the stationary front and the aforementioned cold front. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft between 63W-70W, and 3-5 ft between 70W and the cold front as indicated in buoy observations and latest altimeter data passes over those areas of the western Atlantic. In the eastern part of the area, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 8-10 ft due to mainly a long-period northwest swell are present from 15N to 26N between the coast of the Africa and 46W. South of 21N and east of 49W to the coast of Africa, gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds are over these waters along with seas of 8-9 ft in a northwest to north swell. Similar trade winds are over the central section of the area south of 26N between 56W-75W, with seas of 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong northeast winds are at the entrance of the Windward Passage and in the Windward Passage as well. Seas with these winds are in the range of 5-7 ft, except for seas to 8 ft in the Windward Passage.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front the extends from 27N55W to 26N63W and dissipating to the central Bahamas will will weaken and dissipate by late tonight. The cold front that extends from 31N77W to inland central Florida near Melbourne will reach from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida tonight, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 65W. Long-period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the weekend.
Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre