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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 1 month, 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N36W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N E of 18W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Fresh to strong northerly wind is across the Gulf of Mexico behind a a cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are also in the NE basin ahead of the front. Isolated showers are occuring over the SE gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and the Florida Straits.

The front will move eastward across the entire Gulf through tonight, with reinforcing cold air supporting strong NW winds and building seas over the northeast and north central Gulf tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and support generally tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will shift east of the area early next week, allowing winds and seas to increase over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh trades are across the eastern and central Caribean with the strongest winds being over the Colombia offshore waters. On the far NW Caribbean, the tail of a stationary front supports scattered to isolated showers over western Cuba, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters.

A cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move SE through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then weaken as it moves across the northwest Caribbean Sat. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will support the expansion of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover most of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun through Wed night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba by Tue.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 26N72W where it transitions to a stationary front that passes over the northern Bahamas, the Straits of Florida to the NW Caribbean. A second front is farther east extending from 31N50W to 25N65W. Isolated showers are behind the westernmost front, currently affecting the NW offshore waters. Scattered showers are ahead of the easternmost front, N of 24N between 35W and 50W as well as fresh to strong SW winds within 210 nm east of the boundary. This front will continue to move over the central Atlc and dissipate late Sat.

Farther east, a 1032 mb high pressure centered near 410 nm SW of Portugal is supporting fresh to strong NE winds over a large area off the coast of Africa, east of 40E, including the Cape Verde Islands.

Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are in the NW forecast waters ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW waters tonight and reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning. The front is forecast to extend from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through Mon. Meanwhile, another front will move off the NE Florida coast late Sun night, move east and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature