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Updates


Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the far western Gulf of Mexico, and on Hurricane Teddy, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms, not far to the northeast of its center of circulation. Some development is still possible, and the system could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone today or tomorrow while it moves eastward at 10 to 15 mph. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

An area of showers and thunderstorms located over southeastern Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the Straits of Florida is associated with a weak frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to move southward over central and western Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to become marginally conducive for development by Thursday and Friday when the disturbance is forecast to approach the Florida Keys and South Florida. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall can be expected across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. For more information on this system, see forecast products issued by your national meteorological service. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Stewart

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 27.7N 95.1W at 21/0900 UTC or 80 nm ESE of Port Oconnor Texas moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm of the center in the NE semicircle and 120 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. Peak seas are currently 21 ft. Although Beta has been moving W overnight, a WNW motion is expected to resume today, bringing landfall tonight along the middle Texas coast. Once inland, Beta will stall Tue then turn northeast Tue night and Wed, bringing it into Louisiana. Little change in strength is expected prior to landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 30.3N 63.2W at 21/0900 UTC or 140 nm SE of Bermuda moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extends outward from the center 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 240 nm in the NW quadrant, and 90 nm in the W semicircle. A general NNW or N motion is expected through Tue, taking Teddy east then northeast of Bermuda today. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia Tue night or Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred nm south of the Azores and is producing a small area of moderate convection just SE of the center. The system will move east over the next couple of days. The cyclone has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As of 21/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N68W to Miami Florida. Behind this front, a wide area of strong N and NE winds exist, with gales ongoing N of 28N between 68W and 75W. These gales should subside slightly later this morning, but strong winds and rough seas, with wave heights of up to 20 ft, will prevail into tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from along 28W S of 20N. The wave is moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 14N-21N between 21W-25W. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to a 1012 mb low in the Cabo Verde Islands near 17N23W to 13N32W. The ITCZ is from 13N32W to 15N41W. No significant convection is occurring along these features.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A nearly stationary cold front extends from south of Naples Florida to 27N91W. Scattered moderate convection is along the front. Strong to near gale NE and E winds will prevail N of the front over the NE Gulf this morning, before diminishing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon and tonight. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are over the SW Gulf, west of 93W and south of 24N.

The aforementioned front will continue to move slowly S across the eastern half of the Gulf into later today. Strong NE to E winds and large seas will continue today north of the front.

Caribbean Sea

Somewhat drier air is seen over the central Caribbean, where upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

For the forecast, large northerly swell from Hurricane Teddy will continue to impact the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean through today between the Mona Passage and the Leeward Islands. Renewed northerly swell will likely reach these same passages for the latter half of the week. Mariners are advised to check local marine forecasts for more information.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy and the Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic.

The remnants of Wilfred are centered near 16N49W this morning and are producing scattered moderate convection within about 60 nm of the center. These remnants should fully dissipate later today.

Scattered moderate convection associated with a cold front depicted in the Special Features section above is present from 24N to 28N between 71W and the Florida coast. Light to gentle winds are noted south of 25N and west of 72W. To the east, a 1018 mb high is near 28N38W.

Hurricane Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today then move northward toward Atlantic Canada, becoming extratropical by Wed morning. A cold front moving SE through the waters will lead to Gale conditions N of 27N this morning. Long period swell generated by both Hurricane Teddy and this cold front will impact the waters into late week.

Posted 48 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature