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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure gradient, that is between a 1023 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 28N66W, and comparatively lower pressure in Colombia, will support strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea in general. The current situation consists of NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights that are reaching 8 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 72W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. The 24-hour forecast consists of NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 75W. The 48-hour forecast consists of NE- to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 77W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela.

Atlantic Ocean large swell event: A cold front passes through 31N34W, to 28N40W, to 25N49W, to 26N54W, to 30N57W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet in NW swell, from 25N northward between 30W and 61W. Fresh W-to-SW winds are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front from 29.5N northward. Fresh NW winds are from 30N northward between 40W and 50W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward between 20W and 70W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 10N to 25N between 30W and 50W, and from 16N southward from 50W westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 60W eastward. The 24-hour forecast consists of sea heights that will range from 8 feet to 10 feet in NW swell, 15N northward between 35W and 51W. The 48-hour forecast consists of sea heights that will be 8 feet high, from 13N northward between 35W and 59W. W and 61W. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet in NW swell from 22N northward between 35W and 50W, in 48 hours. The wave periods will range from 14 seconds to 16 seconds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 03N18W 02N23W, to 01N29W. No ITCZ is present. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N southward between 12W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 05N southward from 22W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

Gulf Of Mexico

A broad east-to-west oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet from 90W westward, and from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere. Mostly moderate to some fresh SE winds are in the central two-thirds of the area. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is fresh to moderate winds that are moving through the Straits of Florida.

A surface ridge extending into the central Gulf from the western Atlantic will dominate the area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through this period. A cold front entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue will move southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed morning. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh to locally strong easterly winds across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern Gulf the middle to end of the week.

Caribbean Sea

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning in the south central Caribbean Sea.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet in the southern two- thirds of the central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere in the central Caribbean Sea, from Jamaica and Hispaniola southward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Near gale- force to gale-force NE winds are within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are within 375 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds are within 350 nm of the coast of Honduras. Moderate SE winds are elsewhere in the western one- third of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed morning, occasionally reaching near-gale force. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for details about the large swell event. The main impact will be the high sea heights with the cold front.

Moderate to fresh SE winds are to the north and northeast of the Bahamas. Fresh SE winds are between the Bahamas and Cuba. Some strong SE winds are off the coast of Cuba from 21N to 22N between 75W and 77W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 20N southward from 44W westward. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE- to-E winds are from the NE Caribbean Sea islands to 20N from 60W westward. Moderate NE winds are from 22N southward between 30W and 44W. Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from 25N northward from 21W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas northward, and from 3 feet or less from the Bahamas southward.

High pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Tue morning, then slowly track eastward north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by Thu night.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Al