Atlantic Gale Warning
Low pressure will strengthen along the Georgia coast this afternoon, sending a cold front off the Florida coast by evening. Ahead of the front, southwest gales will develop tonight north of 28N, and progress east from 76W as the front orients from south of Bermuda into the southeast Bahamas by wed night. Some gales may linger ahead of the front into early thu as far east as 58W. Behind the cold front, northwest gales will develop north of 28N between 62W and 76W wed into early thu. Another round of northwest gales may surge into the area late thu night through fri night north of 29N between 62W and 68W. Seas of up to 18 ft are expected over the gales area starting late tue and and continuing into at least fri. Please read the latest high seas forecast product, under awips/wmo headers miahsfat2/ fznt02 kNHC, the latest offshore waters forecast under awips/wmo headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.
The Monsoon Trough extends from Sierra Leone near 12W to 18W. The ITCZ continues from 18W to 32W to Brazil near 46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 6N-5S between 32W-50W.
Gulf of Mexico
As of 31/1500 UTC a cold front is over the northwest Gulf of Mexico from southwest Louisiana near 93W to south Texas near 97W. Isolated showers are within 30 nm of the front. 20 kt northerly winds are west of the front. Elsewhere, prefrontal isolated moderate convection is over the northeast Gulf north of 29N. The northeast Gulf has 20-25 kt southwest surface winds. The southern Gulf has mostly fair weather.
The northwest Gulf front will move southeast to exit the Gulf by wed evening. Ahead of the front, strong southwest winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected this afternoon over the far northeast Gulf and continue through the evening. Behind the front, strong northwest to north winds are expected over the same area tonight and wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the basin late wed, and remain relatively tranquil through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the northeast Gulf.
10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia and weakest winds along the south coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are along the coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica. More scattered showers are over east Honduras, east Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and west Panama.
Low pressure moving east from the United States mainland will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic for the remainder of the week, allowing winds and seas in the Caribbean to subside. A cold front will pass through the Yucatan channel wed evening, then stall along 20N thu and dissipate by fri.
Please see the special features section above for information on the gale warning north of the Bahamas.
A 1011 mb low is off the coast of South Carolina near 74W. A 1017 mb high is north of the Leeward Islands near 64W. Another 998 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 41W. A cold front enters the east Atlantic near 32W to 40W to 50W to 60W. A warm front is over the east Atlantic from 24W to the canary islands near 16W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 27W-32W.
The low off the coast of South Carolina will rapidly deepen and head ENE tonight. An unusually strong cold front for this time of year will push southeast across the Bahamas wed and wed night to extend from near 65W to near the windward passage thu. The front will eventually pass to the east of Puerto Rico by sun. Ahead of the front, southwest gales will develop and seas will build tonight north of 28N and east of 78W, then expand east through wed. Northwest gales are also forecast behind the front over the same area wed and wed night.
The east Atlantic cold front will continue to move east through thu.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Formosa