Will this be the hottest year ever?

Credit: KellyKarasek on Click2Pins

HOUSTON – We all know it’s hot, but some climate data suggests that this year will be the hottest globally on record and, if not this year, then 2024. Just this past July 4, the world set a record for the being the hottest day EVER reaching a global average temperature of 17.18 °C (62.62°F). This walloped the previous hottest-day record of 16.92°C which occurred on two dates, July 24, 2022, and Aug. 14, 2016! This all according to the University of Maine and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, according to data from the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine.

Between rising carbon dioxide emissions and the El Nino effect, which we expect will last through next year, the heat is on. According to the World Meteorological Center: There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. You can read the entire article with plenty of links and data right here.

In the meantime, our summers continue to warm with days above 100° averaging eight per summer. Take a look at data since 1970 and the trend is pretty obvious (that big spike is 2011 when we had our drought and the one slightly smaller is 1980):

Credit: Climate Central

And these morning lows continue to struggle to drop below 80°. So we start warm and end hot! Here’s a look at Houston’s averages the past five decades:

Credit: Climate Central

And that is about double what the United States as a whole is experiencing! We’re all warming up!

Credit: Climate Central

According to Climate Central, this week is likely to be our hottest so far and will continue with extreme heat through at least Friday. Their analysis is here.

You probably know that extreme heat warnings were issued today for much of our area meaning feels-like temps will reach 113° or higher. Stay hydrated and cool and keep everyone safe!


Email me with questions and comments.

About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with four decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, consumer and business news and local crime coverage.