Model update on how cold Houston mornings will be

CREDIT: KPRC2 meteorologist Caroline Brown

As they say in Poltergeist, they’re here! If you’ve been watching our coverage, clearly the snow and ice glaze on overpasses and roads has been a nightmare for some folks and now the even colder temperatures are on the way. Bush/IAH hasn’t been above freezing all day, so any Monday High forecasts in the 30s are a bit suspect! Once the precipitation begins to leave later this afternoon, we do have a chance to warm up some, but the clouds will hang on for the rest of the day. Tomorrow the sun is back.

I get asked a lot which weather model does better, the American or European. Every situation is different and so I generally look at them all until I get more confidence in one over the other. As it happens, for our temperatures the next couple of days the American and European are the same, which is a good confidence builder! Neither did very well last Friday (the forecast in parentheses) for tomorrow morning temperatures leaving the National Weather Service meteorologists (the humans!) far ahead of the game.

Models are coming more in line with each other

I don’t know what to say about the Canadian model and that Wednesday morning forecast of 11 degrees and now changed to 12!

Here’s a wider look at the European across our region for tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Take precautions as in many cases the temperature will likely fall a degree or two colder than what we see here:

CREDIT: weathermodels.com
CREDIT: weathermodels.com

A final word on the Wind Chills which will be in single digits: Yes, animals are affected! While the math for calculating wind chill is for “bare human skin”, any sentient being is going to feel a difference when heat is blown away from their skin or fur! As a rule of thumb, dogs with a thick coat should be out in this cold no more than 30 minutes while short-haired dogs should come in after 15 minutes. Dogs can suffer hypothermia just like humans, so protect those pets in this cold weather!

Frank

Email me with questions and comments.


About the Author

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with four decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

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