In reality, the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t have a hard stop or start (we’ve seen it last through December and start in January) although generally the warm water fuel for hurricanes is present from June 1st to November 30th. That’s why the ‘season’ is from those dates. Incidentally, we’ve had plenty of tropical storms in May, so I think the season should officially being May 15th like in the Pacific.
Not withstanding, the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a disturbance in the Caribbean that appears likely to muscle up to strong tropical storm strength (around 70mph winds) as it moves across southern Cuba and Haiti this weekend. Once over the open Atlantic an even stronger full-blown hurricane is likely.
Here’s the American model:
Given we’ve made it through the “T” storm (TAMMY), we would skip right over “U” to “V”--this one would be VINCE. You can see below that the HOTTEST water is right there where this storm looks to develop, sitting at 86°F (30°C):
And while most of the area has strong winds that would tear up a developing system, there is one area where wind shear is low--I’ve drawn a white arrow pointing that out:
So, warm water, low wind shear, and a model suggesting development all make a con-VINCING argument for the 60% odds the National Hurricane Center has on this. The Caribbean island chain will brace for strong winds and heavy rain, mud slides and flooding. After this one, it’s looking tropically quiet for the rest of the season (whatever that means, right?).
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Watch our rain today and tomorrow, then we have some pretty nice days ahead!
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