Our strong Pacific El Nino has done its job so far this year at least in terms of keeping hurricanes away from Texas, and generally from the U.S.A. mainland, despite this being an active season. In Texas, we’re five times more likely to be hit by a hurricane during a La Nina year than an El Nino year!
Here’s how the season shaped up “numbers wise” and you’ll notice that while Tropical Storms were more numerous, actual hurricanes and major hurricanes were right at average:
As we always say, it’s not how many, it’s whether one hits you or not and most of the activity remained off shore:
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But there were U.S. hits, three in fact and one in Texas: Tropical Storm Harold, Hurricane Idalia and Tropical Storm Ophelia:
While Tropical Storm Harold was pretty forgettable for us causing only minimal damage down in the Valley and bringing much-needed five to seven inches of rain, there was one fatality. Where? Las Vegas! That’s right...the remnants of Harold combined with leftover moisture from Pacific Hurricane Hillary to produce flooding on the famous Las Vegas Strip. One person drowned and another is still missing.
Likewise, Tropical Storm Ophelia made trouble much farther north than where it went ashore in North Carolina. While downing trees to New Jersey and causing minor flooding, the storm canceled the Mets versus Marlins baseball game and played havoc with the Northwell Health Ironman Triathlon. Rough seas, heavy rain and howling winds in the New York area challenged the participants like no other ironman ever had! Here’s one Instagram report from a participant.
The big player was Hurricane Idalia which ramped up to a Category 3 storm making landfall in northwest Florida with 125 mph winds and a record six to nine-foot storm surge. By all accounts, Florida was about as prepared as possible given what Hurricane Ian had done to the state just last year. Still, the storm took 10 lives and caused $2.5 billion damage.
So how were the forecasts?
Every year, more and more private industries, government institutions and universities make their prognostications for the upcoming hurricane season. This year was no exception!
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I put a table together showing just how some of the more known forecasts compared. Colorado State is the oldest in the game and did pretty well as far as forecasting an above-normal season. The University of Arizona had the best forecast last year but was a little high this year. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) and Tropical Storm Risk (also out of England) were respectable. The winner: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Hurricane Center although big asterisk here, they do give themselves a fairly wide range for a forecast! Nonetheless, the actual numbers all fell within that range:
Finally, here’s a list of all the names and storms/hurricanes from this year. Given that none of these storm names are likely to be retired, we’ll be seeing these all again in 2029!
So officially, tomorrow the season ends, but you may notice on the list above that the first one is Unnamed Storm. Well, THAT one occurred in January of this year giving the season a record early start, but then Arlene didn’t form until July! So you just never know!
Regardless, the 2024 Hurricane season forecasts will start in April and the watch will once again begin.
Frank
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