Does a hot June mean an even hotter summer?

from Leah in Colorado County via click2pins

On Wednesday, my blog looked back at just how many times our month of June has actually reached 100° or higher. I found that since 1990, about one third of the time this happens, but with great variability: those eight Junes ranged from one day of 100+ to as many as seven.

This begged the question from our newest anchor, KPRC 2′s Candace Burns “If June has 100-degree temperatures, does that mean the rest of the summer has even more?”

So this blog takes a look at that question. The answer, in a word, is “maybe.” Here’s a look and, don’t worry, I made a chart.

In 1990, we had one June day of 100° followed by a July with none and an August with six and none in September. So, the single day in June seemed to be a true exception and the summer as a whole was relatively normal.

In 1998, only two days reached 100+ in June, then 14 in July and eight in August. But those days that didn’t reach 100 in July and August were very close--a lot of upper 90s--and even September reached 99°. That year was an exceptionally hot year.

2006 came in with a single 100 day in June followed by none the rest of the summer!

2009 brought in the record seven days in a row in June of 100+ temps, with another to follow -- four in July and six in August.

2011 was the bear year. The drought. The most horrible year in the world. Six days in June hit 100+, four in July, followed by 30 in August. Yep, every day but one day in the month of August reached 100 degrees or higher (setting the 109° record). Even September had 5 days of 100+ temps.

2012 showed up similar to 2006 - three days in June reached 100 with none after that.

2013 also was a pretty “light” year with two days of June hundreds, none in July and three in August.

Last year, 2022 sparked up with five June days at 100+, followed by 13 in July and four in August.

Keep in mind, we still haven’t officially hit 100° this year, but yesterday was 98° so we’re on our way. What to make of all this? Well, it’s crazy to cherry pick years and temps because so many factors go into our climate--you’d really have to analyze the whole atmosphere of each summer to come up with an idea and with climate warming you’d still be challenged to get a perfect answer.

But Candace asked, so, generally speaking, if we have more than five days hitting 100 in June, we’re likely to have a very hot July and August and even September months. It would seem the trend is set and the upper-level climate features causing the heat are parked pretty well and not moving anytime soon. At five or fewer, we seem to have a chance at staying a bit cooler but 1998 toasted us regardless! And keep in mind that a Texas tropical storm can change it all.

Here’s my chart for easy reference:

copyrighted by me!

Stay safe this weekend. Regardless of the heat, it IS the weekend!


Email me with comments and questions.

About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with four decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, consumer and business news and local crime coverage.