Ta ta, tropics!

Our tropical season is over

HOUSTON – Well, well, fall has fell!

Finally, a fall front! And while that brings us a spectacular weekend, these fronts generally mean the Texas Tropical season is Closed for Business! And the fronts look to be a week apart with another next weekend and then the following.

Here’s the latest American model:

CREDIT: tropicaltidbits.com

Those fronts change our wind direction at the surface to be out of the north (Ahhhhh-ctober!) and in the upper atmosphere winds change from off the Gulf to off the Rockies with a nice west-to-east flow:

Northerly at the surface, westerly in the upper atmosphere

This wind shift, in essence, sets up a Brick Wall so that any gulf storms stay away from Texas. The rest of the Gulf Coast is, however, still vulnerable.

These winds block storms from coming to Texas

The East Coast is certainly still in hurricane season.

You may remember Hurricane Sandy in 2012 which was a late October/early November hurricane for New Jersey. Right now, a post-tropical Philippe will bring a flood threat this weekend to northern New England, especially Maine.

Philippe still poses a flood threat to northern New England

Our latest hurricane by date to strike anywhere on the Texas Coast is Hurricane Jerry back in 1989.

Our latest hurricane on the Texas coast was October 16, 1989

Four years ago, on its 30th anniversary, I blogged about Hurricane Jerry which you can read right here.

So, we do get October hurricanes, but for us this year you can pretty much stick a fork in the tropical season.

That said, the Pacific is still active and there is always a chance to get leftover heavy rain from a Pacific system moving across Mexico into Texas! Never turn your back on the tropics!

Have a wonderful, fall weekend! Go Astros!!


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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with four decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Two-time Emmy award winning meteorologist and recipient of the 2022 American Meteorological Society’s award for Excellence in Science Reporting by a Broadcast Meteorologist.