How long will this hurricane lull last?

This looks like last year!

The Gulf is on fire and the Atlantic well above normal for water temperatures, so if and when something tropical really gets going and heads toward the Caribbean and Gulf, watch out.

This lull is just like last year when we had three storms in June and early July, then nothing until September. But the season roared to life with seven storms in September, three in October and another three in November. Hurricane Ian was, unfortunately, one of them, although most ended up over the ocean or well south of the Gulf:

Credit: National Hurricane Center

Like last year, the Saharan dust has been a big player and continues to be as we move through the month.

Saharan Dust inhibits tropical formation

What’s interesting though is that Colorado State University released its August forecast for storms and it didn’t go up or down from the July forecast -- you’d think that as we’ve been very quiet, and look to continue to be quiet, that the number would go down seeing as we’re pretty far along into the whole season.

4 named storms and 1 in January count against the total forecast for tropical storms

The forecasters from CSU say in their latest report that despite windy conditions due to El Nino and any dust out there, the warm waters of the Atlantic will eventually take over and we can expect a very busy September. Right now, the American Model offers little the next 16 days in the tropics:


Bottom line: the hurricane season may be in a lull right now as we suffer through dry, hot weather, but don’t think for a minute that it can’t quickly explode. We’re watching and tracking!


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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with four decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, consumer and business news and local crime coverage.