Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 05N38W and to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N and west of 44W.

Gulf Of Mexico

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from SW Louisiana to southern Texas. A warm front extends from 27N86W to SE Louisiana. A large area of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms is affecting the southern Mississippi Valley and extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. The storm complex is being supported by middle to upper level diffluent flow and moist southern return flow. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a weak pressure pattern.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong SE winds in the south-central Gulf waters, especially south of 26N and between 84W and 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are evident in the rest of the western half of the Gulf, especially west of 90W. Seas in the area described are also 4-6 ft. Mariners are advised that stronger winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the more intense storms. Elsewhere in the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward and inland through late Fri. A series of upper-level disturbances moving from W to E will maintain active weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a high pressure system north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the NW Caribbean while smoke is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 24N into the central Bahamas tonight. The associated pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and in the south central Caribbean. Strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun, reaching near gale- force Fri evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun evening. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. Meanwhile, smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N69W and continues southwestward to the Treasure Coast of Florida near 27N80W. A few showers are seen on satellite imagery ahead of the boundary, especially north of 28N. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found ahead of the front to 61W and north of 26N. A weak high pressure pattern dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, supporting light to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

A broad ridge over the far north Atlantic is the most prominant feature in the central and eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are noted off the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N68W to 27N76W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to 26N74W Fri night, from near 31N63W to 26N70W early Sat afternoon and shift east of 55W by early Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue through Fri afternoon, then become fresh speeds Fri night diminishing Sat afternoon. Active weather is expected to continue ahead of the front. Conditions will improve Fri night into Sat as the front dissipates. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected through Sun as weak high pressure extends E to W along 24N-25N.

Posted 1 hour, 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado