TROPICS

For the second year in a row, we’ve exhausted the list of names allocated for the Atlantic hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Nicholas forms

Phil Klotzbach, a researcher and hurricane expert at Colorado State University, has issued his July updated forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday. He’s predicting another busy season.

Tropical Depression Claudette continues its move across the Gulf coast states this morning, dropping heavy rain and tornadoes along the way. Latest coordinates continue to show an ENE movement at an increased speed of 17mph with the center in Georgia, heading toward the east coast. It is expected to strengthen once again into a tropical storm as it nears the Carolina coast. Later tonight and into Monday.

As Sub-Tropical Storm Ana formed in the Atlantic overnight. (it will not be a threat to land) Our first disturbance of the 2021 tropical season has moved inland near Corpus Christi with outer rain bands providing our increased rain chances for today.

HOUSTON – The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Hurricane Committee held its annual meeting from March 15 to 17. They cited several reasons for their decision:Often, there is more focus on the use of the Greek alphabet for names rather than the storm itself, which leads to less-than-optimal communication of important information. Greek alphabet names can be confusing when translating to different languages. The WMO will replace the Greek alphabet names with a supplemental list of names that start with A, B, C, D, and so on, all the way down the alphabet with the exception of Q, U, X, Y, and Z. AdThe supplemental list of names agreed upon for Atlantic hurricanes is:AdriaBraylenCaridadDeshawnEmeryFosterGemmaHeathIslaJacobusKenzieLucioMakaylaNolanOrlandaPaxRoninSophieTayshaunVivianaWillPacific storms will also have a supplemental list, which you can view here.

HOUSTON – Iota was the 30th named storm and the 13th hurricane in this record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. 4 Hurricane Eta decimated the same area. What is left of Iota is still producing rain over Central America but the focus now switches to the long road to recovery for Honduras and Nicaragua, both hard hit by Eta and Iota. The calendar might say mid November and hurricane season does end November 30th but the tropics are still busy. Neither spot would threat the U.S. but they could be a concern for hard hit Central America.

HOUSTON – The storm is expected to weaken just slightly down to a strong tropical storm before making landfall somewhere between Cedar Key and Clearwater, Florida by this evening. It will bring heavy rain, wind and up to a 2-3 foot storm surge during high tide across central and NW Florida coastline. Eta is approaching the central Florida coastline this eveningEta will move across Florida tonight and tomorrowWe might be nearing the end of hurricane season but the tropics are still very busy! Tropical Storm Theta is churning in the north Atlantic heading towards Spain and Portugal and we will likely be looking at “Iota” over the next few days tracking in the Caribbean towards Central America. Busy TropicsTHETA marks the 29th named storm of the 2020 season breaking the record for the most named tropical systems in a hurricane season.

HOUSTON – Rain is the only thing left of Beta and it is moving through the Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. This batch of rain will continue to push into the mid-Atlantic states Friday before moving off shore this weekend. Here is a look at what Beta left behind in Southeast Texas:Heavy Rain with Storm Totals over 12′'! Beta has dropped over a foot of rain in some locations in southern Metro Houston. The heaviest rain fell from Ellington Field and Pearland to west Houston.

This dry air is being drawn into Beta’s circulation, causing the storm to be very off-balance, or lopsided. The orange coloring to the left (west) shows dry air. Dry air is stable. Dry air intrusion will keep Beta from strengthening. Wind shear will continue to be somewhat of a problem for Beta as it works its way toward the Texas coast.

HOUSTON – Grocery stores may be a little extra busy this weekend as people are watching two storms headed toward the Gulf Coast. “I was watching the news last night and they just said that it’s the best time to stock up with some necessities,” said Christina Guerrero. Some Houstonians were already getting prepared Friday morning. “We’re beating the rush hour, before lunchtime, before people get here, it’s always good to be prepared,” said Angel Halborsen. I’m just holding my breath for the next couple of days to see what happens,” said Willie Anderson.

HOUSTON – While we haven’t even reached the peak of the 2020 hurricane season, today we welcome to the picture, Tropical Depression # 11 which formed in the Eastern Atlantic this afternoon. The initial reading on the storm is moving west at 16 mph with 35 mph sustained winds. TD 11 is still churning in the AtlanticThe storm’s track from the National Hurricane Center brings it north of the Windward Islands later this week as a tropical storm. Once TD 11 strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named “JOSEPHINE”. You can follow the changes with this storm and every storm that develops as we head into the peak of our hurricane season by heading to the KPRC 2 Hurricane Headquarters

HOUSTON – Hurricane Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) made landfall Monday night at 11:10 p.m. EDT near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina with winds sustained at 85 mph. Today the storm dropped to tropical storm strength and raced up the Mid-Atlantic states into New England producing as much as 10″ of rain (doppler estimated) in Maryland, flooding in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York and tornadoes in Massachusetts. The storm is now moving into Canada and losing tropical characteristics. Isaias Current AdvisoryIsaias TrackThe storm will continue into Canada as just a Low Pressure system producing 1-3″ of rain and gusty winds. Isaias is not our storm but hurricane season doesn’t end until November 30th!

From the Pacific to Texas to the far Caribbean, the tropics showed up as the Weekend Headline! Clearly, the most devastating was ours, Hurricane Hanna, taking a clear shot on South Texas, battering boats, toppling trees and flooding roads and homes. Look at the rain amounts on Doppler radar out of Brownsville from Friday evening to this morning, most of which came on Saturday. This looks like a Jackson Pollock masterpiece:10-15" of rain Saturday and SundayThe purple images indicate 10-12″ of rain with the white at 15″ of rain! Hanna rainsAnd the winds rocked to 90 mph creating a 4-6′ storm surge across Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi.

HOUSTON – Today, Colorado State University hurricane researchers led by hurricane expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, have increased their 2020 hurricane forecast to the following:The new updated July hurricane forecast for 2020We have already had five named storms as of the Fourth of July weekend, so according to the new updated hurricane forecast, we could see an additional 15 named storms before the end of the season! One of the fuels for an active hurricane season is warmer than average Atlantic Ocean waterActive Western Africa monsoon season:The current forecast for the monsoonal season across Western Africa is trending to be a wetter (more active) season than usual. These are important because a generally strong La Niña pattern lends itself to a more active tropical season by history. Conversely, an El Niño pattern generally is seen during less active tropical seasons. We’ll continue to see more updates to the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane seasonal forecast this August as well.

The question: Is there a correlation between Saharan dust storms and tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean? The answer: Saharan dust, also known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), inhibits tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Saharan dust plumes inhibit hurricane formation in various ways. All of these factors make Saharan dust, or the Saharan Air Layer, a hurricanes enemy. And, while these dust plumes happen every summer, sometimes they are more frequent than others.

Cristobal is the third named storm of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. What we knowCristobal made landfall in southern Louisiana just west of Grand Isle Sunday afternoon. The storm continues to move inland producing heavy rain and increasing flooding concerns through the Midwest. Cristobal is moving north into the Midwest as a remnant low bringing heavy rain from Missouri into the Great Lakes. There is a tropical wave in the central Atlantic that has only a 10% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Published: May 13, 2020, 7:34 am Updated: May 13, 2020, 8:05 amHOUSTON – Approximately 97% of tropical systems occur between June 1 and Nov. 30, but this does mean 3% of tropical systems occur outside the traditional hurricane season. The earliest tropical storm on record was January 3, 1938. The good news is most computer models that show the disturbance developing into Arthur forecast the system to stay offshore. It could cause beach erosion along the East Coast, but the largest impact would be an important reminder that hurricane season is here and it is time to be prepared. The 2020 hurricane season is on track to be busy with an above-average season in the forecast.

Houston, TX - Good news from the Tropics as two factors continue to inhibit development in the Atlantic basin: wind shear and Saharan dust! Two primary reasons for the lack of tropical development are Saharan Dust which promotes dry air:and Strong Wind Shear over the Gulf, Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. The cluster of clouds you see behind that one may well follow suit. There does seem to be a see-saw effect that when the Pacific is busy, the Atlantic is not and vice versa. Cheers,FrankCopyright 2019 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.