HOUSTON – Approximately 97% of tropical systems occur between June 1 and Nov. 30, but this does mean 3% of tropical systems occur outside the traditional hurricane season.
The earliest tropical storm on record was January 3, 1938.
Last year’s first system, Subtropical Storm Andrea, occurred on May 20, 2019, southwest of Bermuda, and 2020 could be off to a similar start.
The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance off the coast of Florida. No development is likely over the next two days but by the weekend, there is a 70% chance this disturbance could spin up into Arthur.
The good news is most computer models that show the disturbance developing into Arthur forecast the system to stay offshore. It could cause beach erosion along the East Coast, but the largest impact would be an important reminder that hurricane season is here and it is time to be prepared.
The 2020 hurricane season is on track to be busy with an above-average season in the forecast.