HOUSTON – The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs released a representative survey on voters’ preferences and opinions surrounding candidates they likely favor in the Nov. 7 municipal election.
The survey, conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 6, contacted potential voters via SMS messages where they were directed to an online survey platform with the option to complete the survey in English and Spanish.
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According to the release, the survey population of 800 has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% and is representative of those City of Houston residents who are likely to vote in the 2023 mayoral election.
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The results of the survey will be presented in a series of two reports.
The survey examined the following: The mayoral and controller races in November and the mayoral runoff in December, along with two local propositions on the ballot in the general election. The second report will focus on policy issues facing the city of Houston.
There are 18 candidates in the mayoral race.
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By the numbers
November’s survey showed the following:
- 34% of likely voters intend to cast a ballot for Texas State Sen. John Whitmire.
- 31% of likely voters intend to cast a ballot for Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee.
- 22% of likely voters is undecided.
- At least 13% of likely voters into to vote for one of the 15 other candidates, ranging from 4% to 0%.
Among the undecided voters:
- 62% indicated they definitely or might consider voting for Whitmire, while 16% said they would never vote for Whitmire.
- 36% indicated they definitely or might consider voting for Jackson Lee, while 53% said they would never vote for Jackson Lee.
- 30% indicated they definitely or might consider voting for Garcia, while 8% said they would never vote for Garcia.
December’s mayoral runoff election between Whitmire and Jackson Lee showed the following:
- 50% of likely voters intend to cast a ballot for Whitmire.
- 36% of likely voters intend to cast a ballot for Jackson Lee.
- 9% likely voters remain undecided in Whitmire-Jackson Lee runoff.
- 5% report they would not vote in the runoff if these were the two candidates.
Likely voters’ choices in mayoral runoff election between Whitmore and Jackson Lee showed the following:
- 43% of likely voters indicate they would never vote for Jackson Lee, compared to 15% who say they would never vote for Whitmire.
- 51% of likely voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Jackson Lee (41% very unfavorable), compared to 24% who hold an unfavorable opinion of Whitmire (13% very unfavorable).
Likely voters choices by gender in mayoral runoff election between Whitmire and Jackson Lee:
- Whitmire’s runoff vote intention among men is 29 percentage points greater than that of Jackson Lee, 57% to 28%.
- The two are effectively tied among women (42% to 43%, respectively).
Likely voters choices by race in mayoral runoff election between Whitmire and Jackson Lee:
Whitmire
- 46% white
- 15% Black
- 37% Latino
Jackson Lee
- 15% white
- 64% Black
- 16% Latino
Likely voters choices by generation in mayoral runoff election between Whitmire and Jackson Lee:
Whitmire
- 34% Silent/ Boomer
- 36% Generation X
- 31% Millennial/ Gen Z
Jackson Lee
- 31% Silent / Boomer
- 32% Generation X
- 29% Millennial/ Gen Z
Likely voters choices by partisan in mayoral runoff election between Whitmire and Jackson Lee:
Whitmire
- 24% Democrat
- 51% Republican
- 37% Independent
Jackson Lee
- 51% Democrat
- 1% Republican
- 15% Independent
Read the full survey report below: