Forecasters watching new system in Gulf of Mexico

By Aaron Barker - Senior Digital Editor, Justin Stapleton - KPRC Weekend Meteorologist

HOUSTON - Forecasters are monitoring a system that is moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
A broad cluster of showers and storms developed Saturday in the eastern Gulf, off the coast of Florida.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the upper-level low pressure system could slowly strengthen during the next couple of days but has a 30% chance of development during the next five days.

Here’s a closer look at the forecast for this system.

What we know

The system is encountering moderate to high wind shear over this weekend, which should help keep development in check through Sunday.

However, there is also extremely warm water available in the Gulf of Mexico, which could fuel development if the wind shear decreases, as is forecast to early next week.

Regardless of whether a tropical system develops, the low pressure is expected to bring increased rain chances to the Houston region by the middle of next week.

What we don’t know

It’s too early to tell where this system would go if it were to develop, but the National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area along the Texas Gulf Coast as a spot where development could happen.

Forecast models are painting a bull’s-eye of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in the Corpus Christi area by Friday night.

While deeper tropical moisture will certainly enhance our rainfall chances, pinpointing where the heaviest rain will fall and when still has some questions. 

What you should do

We are in the peak of hurricane season, so it’s a good idea to stay updated on the latest forecast.

This serves as a good reminder to review your hurricane preparedness plan. You can get more information about developing a plan and building an emergency kit at Click2Houston.com/hurricane.
You can also download our Hurricane Tracker app to get updates on your phone whenever a system develops.

Elsewhere in the tropics

Tropical Storm Humberto is spinning through the northern Bahamas this weekend. It is expected to turn east and move back out over the Atlantic as it strengthens into a hurricane.

There are three other tropical waves that are being monitored in the central Atlantic. It’s too early to tell where those systems could be headed.

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