Special Features

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front enters the far NE Atlantic waters near 31N19W and continues southwestward to 20N38W, followed by a shear line to 19N60W. Another cold front enters the basin near 31N23W to 29N30W and to 31N37W. Scattered showers are seen north of 28N and between 15W and 30W. A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago indicate that fresh to strong cyclonic winds are occurring north of 25N and between the Canary Islands and 37W. Large N swell generated from the gale force low N of the area is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 27N between 19W and 37W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding through late week. Rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 10N between 15W and 45W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 03N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 07N and between 23W and 33W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. No significant convection is noted across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf waters. Moderate or weaker winds are expected through Thu. Fresh west to southwest winds will develop over the northern Gulf by late week ahead of a low pressure system that will move across the southern United States. A cold front will extend from the low across the forecast waters, reaching the eastern Gulf on Sun while weakening, then move to south of the area Sun night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany the front.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from far eastern Cuba to NE Honduras. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are occurring behind the front in the NW Caribbean. A surface trough along 72W and divergence aloft result in scattered showers affecting Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the north-central Caribbean waters. A few showers are also found north of Panama. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally strong easterly winds in the south-central and SE Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean tonight. A cold front from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras will become stationary from Hispaniola to near 15N80W by late on Thu, then weaken and dissipate on Fri. Fresh north winds behind the front will diminish north to south Fri through Sat. Rough seas in north swell over the Atlantic will subside by Thu evening.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for information on significant swell causing very rough seas in portions of the east-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm E of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front north of 28N and west of 51W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds and moderate seas are found off NE Florida. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 7-9 ft are present south of 20N and west of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front in the SW N Atlantic will weaken as it moves across the eastern offshore waters Thu, and while its southern portion becomes stationary. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, generally north of 26N, through tonight. Fresh to locally strong west winds and rough seas may develop off the coast of northern Florida on Thu as a cold front passes north of the waters. Weak high pressure will build over the western tropical Atlantic allowing for moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week. Another front will move across the basin starting late on Sat, reaching the eastern offshore waters Mon and and Mon night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind this front.

Posted 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado