Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: As of 15Z, a strong cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near-gale force N winds and building seas are following the front. As this system continues to move through the basin, winds will rapidly increase to gale force near Tampico early this afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters this evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz tonight. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 07N12W, then runs westward to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N30W to 05N40W to near the equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 10W and 44W.

Gulf Of America

A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Please read the Special Features section above for details.

As previously mentioned, a strong cold front is moving across the Gulf region. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front. The remainder of the area is under the influence of a ridge, that extends from near Bermuda, across Florida into the Gulf region. Mainly gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are ahead of the front, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft within about 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula. Areas of dense fog were observed this morning ahead of the front, and mainly over the north-central Gulf and along west Florida.

For the forecast, outside of the strong cold front, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night.

Caribbean Sea

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas in these waters are 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail, except locally fresh to strong in the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the pressure gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad 1028 mb high pressure system centered north of Bermuda near 34N64W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, Florida and the Bahamas. A 1018 mb low pressure system is analyzed near 27N53W. A surface trough extends from 31N42W to the low center, then continues SW to near 21N58W. N of this low, a stationary front is noted, and runs from 31N50W to 28N58W. This weather patter supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across most of the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is on the E side of the low and associated trough. This convective activity covers roughly the waters from 21N to 27N between 43W and 55W. Farther E, high pressure of 1032 mb located near the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 07N to 25N E of 35W to the coast of west Africa with seas of 8 to 11 ft per altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are observed over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the approaches to the Windward Passage are forecast to persist through Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward Passage. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr