Special Features

Meteo-France Gale Warning East of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a complex low pressure system north of Madeira and a 1024 mb high pressure over Libya results in strong to gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Agadir High Seas Marine Zone through 02/21Z. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the African Continent. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 08N15W through 05N25W to 04N42W. Scattered showers are observed near the ITCZ from 03N to 09N and east of 43W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Caribbean waters near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A 1018 mb high located at the southeastern Gulf continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 6 ft are noted at the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas at the northwestern Gulf are expected to expand eastward into the northeastern Gulf tonight, as a warm front associated with a low pressure system lifts northward. Briefly strong SW winds will be possible on Sat. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Sat afternoon and progress into the central Gulf through Sun, supporting moderate to locally fresh N winds in the wake of the front. High pressure will settle over the Gulf early next week, leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough curves northeastward from north of Colombia to beyond the Windward Passenger. Convergent winds near and east of this feature are causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south and east of Jamaica, and over and south of Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NNE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the central and southwestern Gulf, and also at the lee of Cuba, and near the Windward Passenger. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, N to NE winds occurring west of 75W will diminish through this evening. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the central basin into early Mon as a broad subtropical ridge prevails to the north. Winds may pulse to strong at times in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of northern Colombia through Sat evening. Looking ahead, fresh NE winds may develop through the Atlantic passages near the Greater Antilles early next week as high pressure builds to the north.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section at the beginning on a Meteo- France Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N54W to 23N66W. Scattered heavy showers with isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 175 nm southeast of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh S to SW to NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate NW swell are seen north of 24N and west of 43W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell exist from 20N to 24N west of 43W. North of 20N between 35W and 43W, light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in large NW swell are found. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate to large swells are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean west of 35W, gentle E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh W winds are expected north of 29N through Sat morning as a low pressure system emerges off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states and moves eastward. Residual rough seas in NW swell occurring north of 29N between 72W and 55W will subside through Sat morning. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over the northwestern tropical Atlantic on Sat ahead of a low pressure system moving through the southeastern U.S. Localized winds near-gale force will be possible offshore of northern Florida Sat night, and rough seas are expected near and to the east of these winds. A cold front is slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sat night into Sun and progress eastward through early next week, supporting fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the region early next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan