Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N25W to 04N36W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 10W and 14W, and from 06N to 09N between 49W and 54W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with a 1020 mb high pressure located over SW Florida. This system supports a light to gentle anticyclonic flow over much of the basin, with the exception of gentle to moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, widespread fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas are expected to develop west of 90W tonight as the pressure gradient increases between the ridge over the eastern Gulf and a developing storm system in the central United States. Strong winds will pulse offshore of south Texas and northeastern Mexico tonight through Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds will expand eastward over much of the Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early this weekend. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it sweeps over the basin into early next week. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Sat into early Mon.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low is producing fresh to strong trade winds with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Locally fresh N winds are occurring south of Hispaniola, and in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Patches of low level moisture, with possible showers, are affecting the NW Caribbean, and parts of the Yucatan peninsula, Belize and Honduras. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this weekend. Rough seas will occur near and to the west of these winds. Strong winds are also expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela starting on Thu afternoon. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the central Caribbean tonight, including through the Windward Passage, with widespread fresh winds expanding over much of the basin through late week as the pressure gradient increases between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola nightly starting on Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low pressure located N of area near 33N45.5W southwestward to 26N50W where it transitions to a stationary front to a 1014 mb low pressure situated near 21N59W based on latest visible satellite imagery. A swirl of mainly low clouds is related to this low. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is occurring E of the low center, and mainly from 17N to 23N between 50W and 57W. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds associated with this convective activity. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere along the frontal boundary. A ridge extends across the western Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of America. Strong high pressure of 1037 mb located between the Azores and the Madeiras Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong NE winds are evident N of 15N E of 20W, and from 21N to 30N between 20W and 30W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are observed over the tropical Atlantic E of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in long period NE swell, are seen E of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds and moderate seas occurring east of 67W and north of 29N will slowly diminish this afternoon as a surface trough moves eastward. Gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are then expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic on Thu as a weak pressure gradient develops. High pressure building off the coast of the eastern United States on Fri will support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the region through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. On Sun, leading to fresh NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr