Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, and extends southwestward to near 07N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N26W to 01N34W and to near 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 35W and 44W, and also within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from western Cuba to inland the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong high pressure is building across the region in the wake of the front. Strong to near gale-force northwest winds are over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico as seen in the 0354Z Ascat pass. Fresh to strong northeast winds are elsewhere south of 24N. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are over the remainder of the Gulf per latest buoy observations and as indicated by recent Ascat satellite data passes. Seas in the far SW Gulf have slowly subsided to 9 to 13 ft. Seas elsewhere south of 24N are 6 to 8 ft and 4 to 6 ft north of 24N. Scattered showers are confined to the SW and west-central Gulf zones.

For the forecast, wind and sea conditions will improve across the Gulf later tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front is forecast to push into the Gulf Wed night into early Thu, followed by increasing winds and building seas, with the front shifting quickly southeast of the basin Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, conditions should improve Thu night into the weekend as high pressure shifts across the N Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front stretches from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. A strong and broad surface ridge northeast of the Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft over the south-central portion of the basin. Mostly fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere across the basin, with the exception of the northwestern Caribbean north of 20N, where mostly fresh northeast winds are found. Similar winds are over and near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are also 4 to 6 ft with these winds, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in a north swell over the waters north of 18N west of 85W, including near and in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northeast to east winds will pulse offshore of northwest Colombia through much of the week and into the upcoming weekend due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia. Pulsing moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through Tue night or so. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. The stationary front will weaken and dissipate today. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move across the northwestern Caribbean on Thu, then stall from eastern Cuba to Honduras on Fri and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend leading to increasing winds across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front is analyzed from 31N62W to 29N69W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 27.5N71.5W, to the central Bahamas and to across west-central Cuba and continues to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are occurring along and near the front. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes show gentle to moderate northeast winds behind the front, except for a swath of fresh northeast winds from 26N to 28N between 65W and 80W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft behind the front east of 74W and 5 to 7 ft west of 74W.

To the east of the front, a couple of weak troughs are noted. One extends from near 26N70W to 21N72W, and the other one from near 25N60W to near 21N67W. No deep convection is occurring with these features. Scattered to locally broken low clouds, with possible isolated showers are next these troughs. In the tropical Atlantic, an upper-level low is identified on water vapor imagery near 22N51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 20N to 23N between 48W and 52W. A large area of moderate rain, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is to the east-southeast of the low from 17N to 23N between 43W and 47W.

In the far northeast part of the discussion area, a cold front extends southwestward from near 31N17W to 28N25W, where it begins to weaken to 28N29W and to near 28N38W. Isolated showers are possible along and near the front. A second fast-moving cold front is along 31N between 19W and 28W. Cold-air advection follows in behind this front. Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds with the cold air advection.

Mostly fresh trade winds are present south of 25N east of about 53W while gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are east and southeast of the western Atlantic frontal boundary. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft east and southeast of this same boundary, with the exception of higher seas 7 to 9 ft in long period northeast to east swell confined to the waters south of 21N between 26W and 48W. The other exception is the lower seas of 3 to 5 ft over the waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas, and also south of 22N between 70W and Cuba.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary that extends from 31N62W, to 29N69W, to 27.5N71.5W, to the central Bahamas and to across west-central Cuba will dissipate today. High pressure will build eastward off the United States southeast coast behind the front. A strong pre-frontal trough is forecast to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Wed morning, and quickly move eastward accompanied by fresh to strong winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move over the waters east of northern Florida Thu morning, reach from near Bermuda to the southeastern Bahamas Fri morning, then extend from near 31N58W to 25N70W Sat morning, where it will stall and weaken. Gale conditions are possible both behind and ahead of the front north of 29N Thu night through Fri morning.

Posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre