Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the coast of Texas late tonight. Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale force near Tampico late Sat morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters Sat evening through Mon morning. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening, and conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 07N12W, then runs westward to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N17W to 02N35W to 02.5N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 15W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A Gale Warning is in effect. Please read the Special Features section above for more information.

A ridge dominates the Gulf region while a cold front is approaching the coast of Texas. The pressure gradient between these two features is supporting fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the southern part of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the western part of the basin and 2 to 4 ft in the eastern part, except less than 2 ft within about 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds across portions of the southwest and central Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds today ahead of the next cold front. The front will move off the coast of Texas late tonight. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

Caribbean Sea

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt offshore Colombia. Rough seas of up to 11 ft are associated with these winds, that are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring south of Hispaniola while moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are blowing across the Windward Passage, between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within these winds. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. Patches of low level moisture, with possible showers, are reaching Hispaniola and eastern Cuba under a NE to E winds flow. Low-topped trade wind showers are moving westward across the basin.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, then fresh to locally strong there afterwards. Rough seas to 11 ft will occur within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras Fri night. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.

Atlantic Ocean

A ridge, anchored on a 1030 mb high pressure located well N of the area near 40N67W, dominates the western Atlantic, the State of Florida and the Bahamas. A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N58W and extends to 28N65W to 31N72W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake of the front. Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring elsewhere W of 60W with slight to moderate seas. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N56W to the northern Leeward Islands. A few showers are near the trough axis. An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed between the northern end of the trough and a stationary front that runs from 31N40W to 28N50W. This convective activity covers the waters from 24N to 30N between 49W and 54W. A low pressure may develop in this area. Strong winds are observed within this convection per satellite derived wind data. Farther E, high pressure of 1034 mb located between the Azores and the Madeiras Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds roughly from 10N to 25N E of 36W to the coast of west Africa with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are observed over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Moderate winds and moderate seas, in NE swell, are seen in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in the wake of a cold front with tail just into the NE waters will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward Passage. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning, dissipating Mon night into Tue.

Posted 1 hour, 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr