Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea north of Conakry, then extends southwestward to 07N17W. An ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 01N35W, then turns northwestward to near the coast of Suriname at 06N55W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 00N to 03N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 110 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 22W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from the northwest Bahamas across the Florida Straits to beyond the Yucatan Channel. Patchy showers are seen up to 70 nm north of this boundary. A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the far west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough is generating similar conditions off the Florida west coast. A developing 1028 mb high over New Orleans is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 26N. South of 26N, gentle to moderate N to NE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail, except fresh to strong NW to N winds with 6 to 8 ft seas off Veracruz, Mexico.

For the forecast, winds and seas off Veracruz, Mexico will diminish further today. Otherwise, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across the Gulf through early Wed. The next cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night, and sink southward through early Thu. Both winds and seas will increase quickly behind the front. The front will be southeast of the Gulf by Thu evening, which should allow conditions to improve through Fri. A reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds may impact the Gulf late in the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The tail end of a stationary front along with a surface trough are producing widely scattered showers at the northwestern basin. Convergent trade winds are causing similar conditions near and south of Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the south-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the tail end of the stationary front is expected to dissipate today. Fresh to strong winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will diminish midweek, then return this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A cold front will move into the northwestern basin Thu, then stall from eastern Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend, leading to increasing winds across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front stretches southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N64W to beyond the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers are evident up to 150 nm northwest of this feature. To the south, two weak but persistent surface troughs are sustaining patchy showers from 21N to 27N between 63W and the southeast Bahamas. At the central Atlantic, a robust upper-level low near 24N50W is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 14N to 24N between 35W and 49W. At the eastern Atlantic, a weak cold front along with a surface trough are bringing patchy showers north of 23N between 10W and 35W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found near the stationary front. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N and west of 55W. North of 24N between 35W and 55W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells exist. For the central Atlantic from 04N to 24N between 35W and 55W, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are present. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 55W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. A pre-frontal trough will emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida Wed morning and quickly move eastward, accompanied by fresh to strong winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. The next cold front will move off the southeastern United States Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas Fri morning, and then from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan