Special Features

Meteo-France Gale Warning East of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a complex low pressure system north of Madeira and a strong high pressure over Libya and Egypt results in strong to gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Agadir High Seas Marine Zone, forecast to continue through 03/18z. Very rough seas are occurring in these waters. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 04N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 08N and between 25W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over the southern United States support fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 26N and west of 87W. The seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, fresh SW winds and moderate to rough seas are expected over the northern Gulf tonight as a warm front associated with a low pressure system lifts northward. Briefly strong SW winds will be possible on Sat. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Sat afternoon and progress over the northern and central basin through Sun, supporting moderate to locally fresh N winds in the wake of the front. High pressure will settle over the basin early next week, leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

Caribbean Sea

A weak surface trough is noted along 78W, producing a few showers east of the trough axis. A weak pressure gradient sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the central and SE Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the central and southeastern Caribbean into early Mon as a broad subtropical ridge prevails to the north. Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat evening. Looking ahead, fresh NE winds are forecast to develop near the Greater Antilles through the Atlantic passages early next week and prevail through Wed night as high pressure builds to the north. Fresh to strong NE winds will also resume off Colombia Wed evening.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for information on a Meteo-France Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from 31N51W to 22N62W, followed by a frontal trough that extends to south of eastern Hispaniola. Divergence aloft is helping to generate scattered showers north of 21N and east of the front to 46W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under a broad, weak subtropical ridge. Moderate westerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found north of 27N and west of the front. In the meantime, in the far NE Atlantic, a large storm system is producing fresh to strong cyclonic winds north of 26N and east of 30W. Rough to very rough seas are affecting these waters. Farther south, moderate easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the trade waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh W winds are expected north of 29N through Sat morning as a low pressure system emerges off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states and moves eastward. Residual rough seas in NW swell occurring north of 29N between 70W and 55W will subside through Sat morning. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over the NW subtropical Atlantic offshores on Sat ahead of a low pressure system moving through the southeastern U.S. Localized winds near-gale force will be possible offshore of northern Florida Sat night, and rough seas are expected near and to the east of these winds. A cold front is slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sat night into Sun and progress eastward through early next week, supporting fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the region early next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado