Special Feature

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds to 34 kt off NW Colombia. Rough to very rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned along 20W, south of 16N based on scatterometer satellite data from a few hours ago. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 05N to 15N and east of 28W and remain disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less conducive environment, and further development is not expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.

A tropical wave is E of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along 21W and south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 10N. An area of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 120 nm NW quadrant of the low center. The most recent scatterometer data indicate the circulation of the low as well as and area of fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas to the south of the low center affecting the waters N of 05N between 16W and 21W. The convective activity associated with this tropical wave have become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. Some additional slow development is possible over the next couple of days as the system moves generally west- northwestward. After that, the system is expected to move into an environment that is not conducive for additional development by the weekend.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to a 1013 mb low pres near 12N20W to 09N32W. The ITCZ extends from 09N32W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave along 21N, no significant convection is evident.

Gulf Of America

A 1020 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf supports moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds across much of the western and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in these waters. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few showers are present north of Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of Campeche, while drier conditions are noted in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to locally moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the southeastern United States early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly in the Gulf of Honduras. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convective activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next week. East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak surface trough over the the SW North Atlantic is producing a few showers west of 72W and north of 28N. The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of broad high pressure. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of the SE Bahamas and north of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Mainly moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado