Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas currently over the waters from 08N to 23N between 35W and 58W. The rough to very rough seas, currently peaking near 12-13 ft, will gradually subside from east to west through Tue night. Rough seas are then forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles later this week and into the weekend.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and continues southwestward to 02N14W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N and E of 42W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf along 86W/87W with some isolated thunderstorms near it. Another surface trough is analyzed in the SW Gulf along 92W/93W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are east of the trough, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere across the Gulf. Slight seas prevail across the SW half of the basin with slight to moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the N central Atlantic southwestward across the region through the week, with the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche where winds will be mostly moderate northeast to east. Fresh to strong winds will occur nocturnally off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Surface ridging from strong high pressure over the E CONUS and also the Azores High extends across the northern Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba. Seas in the regions of highest winds are moderate, except for rough seas in the central Caribbean and near NE and E Caribbean-Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a broad area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force trades along with moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours for the next few days. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in wind generated east swell over the tropical N Atlantic will begin to slowly subside on Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see Special Features above for information on a significant swell event.

A strong Azores high extending a ridge into the deep tropical waters continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa all the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 27N. Northwest of the Canary Islands, a cold front brings fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell. Lastly, a weak stationary front extends from 31N62.5W southwestward to 28N67W and to near 26N74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail near the front and a pre-frontal trough from 25N to 31N between 56W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas follow the front.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from near 31N62.5W southwestward to 28N67W and to near 26N74W will become diffuse Tue evening. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with rough to very rough seas will develop behind the front tonight. These winds will diminish Tue night. These seas will linger into Wed while expanding southeastward and merging with similar seas south of 25N east of Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic through the next few days. It will be the main feature controlling the general flow wind pattern across the region, with fresh to strong east winds confined to mostly south of 25N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky