This is not supposed to happen this early!
Disturbances off the coast of Africa that slide all the way across the Atlantic are more of an August/September occurrence, not late June, but here we are with a 60% chance for development over the next five days. See the orange cone below and you can note that it heads straight toward the Caribbean.
But here is some spaghetti for you -- the wind shear map over the Caribbean currently has very strong wind which is unfavorable for development. Right now, the map below shows 50 mph winds in the upper levels and those are the RED lines. I added where Cuba is for reference:
That wind may calm down enough for Bonnie to take hold and, interestingly, both the EURO and the AMERICAN models have the storm developing and moving west toward Central America and the Yucatan from the middle of next week to July 2nd. The American now only produces a weak tropical storm Bonnie moving in the far southern Caribbean going into Nicaragua or Costa Rica. The European also keeps the system in Central America.
So, for now, if Bonnie develops, it stays south of us thanks to High Pressure blocking it:
Saying all that, this tropical situation is early in the game and, as we know, this can all change by next week. We’ll keep a close eye on it so make sure to bookmark our Hurricane Page.
Have a COOL weekend and Happy PRIDE!