Grace will be a Gulf storm

Getting Sandbags ready for Fred in Florida, courtesy NBC News

HOUSTON – As Tropical Storm Fred bears down on Panama City, Florida, two more tropical features have flared up: Grace and TD8 (Henri is the next name). Grace is just south of Haiti/Dominican Republic and will continue to move west toward the Cancun area and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico:

GRACE Satellite Loop courtesy NOAA

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KPRC 2’s Frank Billingsley (KPRC)

The current spaghetti models along with the official NHC forecast track the storm west northwest while strengthening to almost 70 mph (just shy of hurricane strength).

GRACE Spaghetti Models
Grace NHC Forecast

High pressure is forecast to block Grace

The forecasts keeping Grace south of Texas are based on the Bermuda High extending west by Thursday and building even closer to Texas by Saturday. That high would keep Grace moving west:

Upper Level Map for Thursday courtesy Tropical Tidbits
Upper Level High Saturday courtesy tropicaltidbits.com

The latest run from the European model tracks the storm in the same way:

The European model courtesy weathermodels.com

So for now, while Grace looks to be Gulf-bound, forecasts are all on board keeping the system to our south and into Mexico. We’ll let you know if that changes!

Frank

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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, consumer and business news and local crime coverage.