What to know about our Gulf Tropical Disturbance

This morning's graphic gives the Gulf disturbance a 40% chance to develop
This morning's graphic gives the Gulf disturbance a 40% chance to develop

We’ll have a chance to get either or both of the tropical flare ups to make Tropical Depression status the next 24-48 hours although the one in the Gulf better hurry! Circulation from this morning’s NOAA Satellite is pretty evident and you’ll notice a north movement for now:

Notice the spin off the Texas coast indicating circulation is getting a bit better organized

That north movement is likely to turn more northwest today putting the system, whatever it becomes, on shore by tonight. Where does this system go on the Texas Coast? Global Models, including the European, like Matagorda Bay:

Model Guidance courtesy Tropical Tidbits

Although you’ll notice one heads more toward Corpus Christi, but that AVNI model is based on the American model, the GFS. The GFS runs twenty different scenarios to come up with one line and those scenarios are called the GFS Ensembles. Here they are and clearly they are more south of Matagorda Bay with the main forecast line right into Corpus Christi:

GFS Ensembles courtesy tropicaltidbits.com

What About the European Model?

The Euro caught on to this early yesterday, so it’s certainly worth following that model’s lead. Here’s this morning’s Euro through next Monday which moves the system across Matagorda Bay to San Antonio and then up into Oklahoma:

European Model courtesy Weathermodels

That circle, indicating the isobaric field or where the Low actually is, never gets very small--or tight. The tighter the circle the stronger the storm, so this system is likely to stay under 39mph Tropical Storm Force winds. We’ll see.

As for rain, while we’re on the European, most of the heavy rain stays in Louisiana while we see 1-2″ through Sunday. Here’s the wide view and Houston area:

Texas and Louisiana Rainfall courtesy weathermodels.com
Houston Weekend Rainfall courtesy weathermodels.com

Biggest impacts will be at the coast for this one as wave run up can cause coastal flooding and the rip current risk remains high. If you’re heading to Galveston or Surfside, be careful!

Have a safe weekend! Here’s a reminder to download our FREE Hurricane Tracker App to your phone, found in your app store!

Frank

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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, social media news and local crime.