We’ll have a chance to get either or both of the tropical flare ups to make Tropical Depression status the next 24-48 hours although the one in the Gulf better hurry! Circulation from this morning’s NOAA Satellite is pretty evident and you’ll notice a north movement for now:
That north movement is likely to turn more northwest today putting the system, whatever it becomes, on shore by tonight. Where does this system go on the Texas Coast? Global Models, including the European, like Matagorda Bay:
Although you’ll notice one heads more toward Corpus Christi, but that AVNI model is based on the American model, the GFS. The GFS runs twenty different scenarios to come up with one line and those scenarios are called the GFS Ensembles. Here they are and clearly they are more south of Matagorda Bay with the main forecast line right into Corpus Christi:
What About the European Model?
The Euro caught on to this early yesterday, so it’s certainly worth following that model’s lead. Here’s this morning’s Euro through next Monday which moves the system across Matagorda Bay to San Antonio and then up into Oklahoma:
That circle, indicating the isobaric field or where the Low actually is, never gets very small--or tight. The tighter the circle the stronger the storm, so this system is likely to stay under 39mph Tropical Storm Force winds. We’ll see.
As for rain, while we’re on the European, most of the heavy rain stays in Louisiana while we see 1-2″ through Sunday. Here’s the wide view and Houston area:
Biggest impacts will be at the coast for this one as wave run up can cause coastal flooding and the rip current risk remains high. If you’re heading to Galveston or Surfside, be careful!
Have a safe weekend! Here’s a reminder to download our FREE Hurricane Tracker App to your phone, found in your app store!