What to know about the newest hurricane forecast

Hurricane Laura 2020 from click2houston.com
Hurricane Laura 2020 from click2houston.com

Last week, I attended (virtually) the National Tropical Weather Conference live hurricane update from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, of Colorado State University. He took over Dr. William Gray’s hurricane forecasting when Dr. Gray passed in 2016. Phil always begins his talks with a tribute to Dr. Gray who began predicting in 1984:

Two fine hurricane forecasters!

We reported on this forecast last week with Dr. Klotzbach’s forecast of 17 storms this year, eight of which will become hurricanes and, of those, four will become major (Category 3+) storms.

CSU Hurricane Forecast

This is above the new average of 14-7-3 vs. the old average of 12-6-3 (the old average was based on 1980-2010 storms while the new one is based on activity from 1990-2020). Here’s the graphic put out by the National Hurricane Center last week:

Hurricane Average Season has changed--it's gone up!

Regardless of average, this looks to be a busy year.

Reasons why it’s going to get busy

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