71ºF

Watching 3 tropical systems now

Three Areas for potential Tropical Develoment
Three Areas for potential Tropical Develoment

As they say: and then there were three!

This morning showed up with yet another system moving off Africa that the National Hurricane Center flagged for possible tropical development over the next five days.

You can see below 97L, 98L and 99L which respectively have an 80%, 90% and 20% chance to churn up by Sunday:

97L, 98L and 99L across the Atlantic
97L, 98L and 99L across the Atlantic

None are impressive and they’ve been out there this week without much happening and here’s the reason: dry air (yes, the old Saharan Dust is still a factor). Upper-level winds have not been particularly favorable either, but the real struggle is the dry air in front of these systems. That is depicted below in blue and I drew blue circles ahead of the disturbances:

Dry Air Ahead of each system
Dry Air Ahead of each system

So what’s going to happen?

It’s still early in the game, of course, but the American model for this coming Monday looks like this below, and I’ve circled each of our TDs -- 97L is in the Bay of Campeche, 98L is struggling over Cuba and nearby landmasses, and 99L is still facing the dry air problem:

Monday's GFS American model courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Monday's GFS American model courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

And a week from today, next Wednesday, shows 97 and 99 have dissipated while 98 doesn’t form very strongly, and whatever is left of it moves toward Louisiana or the northern Gulf:

Next Wednesday's GFS run courtesy Tropical Tidbits
Next Wednesday's GFS run courtesy Tropical Tidbits

Of course, we have to leave room for changes -- winds can relax, storms can find a nice pool of warm water, energy from other storms can combine and strengthen. A lot can still happen. For now, just keep watching!

Frank

Email me and follow me on Facebook!


About the Author: