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Tropical system that was headed for Gulf now expected to stay in Atlantic

HOUSTON – A slowly strengthening disturbance in the western Atlantic Ocean is setting its sights on Florida.

The storm, currently known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, is currently passing over The Bahamas and tracking slowly northwest. It is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Humberto overnight into early Saturday morning.

Here's a closer look at the system and the forecast.

What we know

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rainfall over the Bahamas, including the area hit hard by Hurricane Dorian, as it continues its movement to the northwest.

The forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine continues to shift farther east, with a landfall along the U.S. coast no longer expected.  Immediate coastal areas in Florida and possibly the Carolinas will see wet weather from the storm, but coastal rainfall amounts will be less than four inches.  The heaviest rainfall will stay offshore.

What we don't know

The confidence in the forecast for this storm is becoming quite high, with no U.S. landfall the most likely scenario.  Still, there is always some level of inherent uncertainty with any forecast, so areas along the southeastern coast of the U.S. should watch this storm closely as it brushes close.

What does this mean for Southeast Texas?

This system will have no impact on Southeast Texas.  

What you should do

While we are not anticipating any tropical impacts to Texas in the foreseeable future, we're in the peak of hurricane season, so it's a good idea to stay updated on the latest forecast.

The abundance of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin serves as a good reminder to us to review our hurricane preparedness plan. You can get more information about developing a plan and emergency kit at Click2Houston.com/hurricane.

You can also download our Hurricane Tracker app to get updates on your phone whenever a system develops.

Elsewhere in the tropics

There are two more areas of disturbed weather in the open Atlantic right now.  They are pushing westward toward the Windward and Leeward Islands and could develop into organized systems.  They are several days away from the Caribbean Sea and long-range forecasts for these disturbances are not clear and consistent.  However, they do bear our close attention over the next week, considering that we continue to be in the statistical peak of hurricane season.


About the Authors:

Aaron Barker

Aaron Barker has been a senior digital editor at KPRC 2 since 2016. As a meteorologist, he specializes in stories about the weather. He has covered Hurricane Harvey, the Astros first World Series win, the Santa Fe High School shooting, the ITC fire and Tropical Storm Imelda.