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Experts continue to project coronavirus-related deaths into January 2022

Dr. Joseph Varon hugs and comforts a patient in the COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) during Thanksgiving at the United Memorial Medical Center on November 26, 2020 in Houston, Texas. According to reports, Texas has reached over 1,220,000 cases, including over 21,500 deaths.
Dr. Joseph Varon hugs and comforts a patient in the COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) during Thanksgiving at the United Memorial Medical Center on November 26, 2020 in Houston, Texas. According to reports, Texas has reached over 1,220,000 cases, including over 21,500 deaths. (2020 Getty Images)

As the first impacts of coronavirus began in the U.S. over a year ago, many states have drawn back social distancing measures to reopen their economies and return to normalcy.

Since loosening restrictions after the pandemic forced stay-at-home orders across the country, the U.S. has experienced an increase in positive cases and hospitalizations.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projected the U.S. saw its peak in daily coronavirus-related deaths on April 15, 2020. On that day, the number was 32,146.

Now, experts project the country will reach 1,210,757 virus-related deaths by January 1, 2022.

IHME previously projected the nation will suffer a total of 317,312 deaths related to COVID-19 by December 1, 2020, then made the following predictions as the situation worsened.

  • 389,087 by January 1, 2021
  • 399,163 by February 1, 2021
  • 470,974 by March 1, 2021
  • 567,195 by April 1, 2021
  • 594,623 by May 1, 2021
  • 574,062 by June 1, 2021
  • 609,172 by July 1, 2021
  • 598,882 by August 1, 2021
  • 941,948 by September 1, 2021
  • 960,226 by October 1, 2021
  • 1,063,068 by November 1, 2021
  • 1,170,232 by December 1, 2021

Projections are based on states’ easing scenarios, current masks mandates, vaccine distribution and new variant spread.

To fully account for the impact of COVID-19, IHME’s projection estimates for September and beyond include the total number of COVID-19 deaths.

Here are state-by-state projections for COVID-19 related deaths by January 1, 2022:

Alabama

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 30,692

Current projection: 31,054

Alaska

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 1,249

Current projection: 1,127

Arizona

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 34,385

Current projection: 35,561

Arkansas

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 14,620

Current projection: 15,521

California

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 138,971

Current projection: 139,740

Colorado

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 12,108

Current projection: 12,604

Connecticut

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 9,817

Current projection: 9,888

Delaware

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 4,464

Current projection: 4,606

Florida

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 77,050

Current projection: 79,732

Georgia

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 41,611

Current projection: 43,111

Hawaii

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 1,071

Current projection: 1,063

Idaho

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 5,768

Current projection: 6,035

Illinois

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 38,339

Current projection: 38,906

Indiana

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 22,475

Current projection: 23,247

Iowa

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 9,735

Current projection: 9,618

Kansas

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 11,589

Current projection: 12,457

Kentucky

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 23,423

Current projection: 24,294

Louisiana

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 19,337

Current projection: 20,065

Maine

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 3,051

Current projection: 3,408

Maryland

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 19,725

Current projection: 20,970

Massachusetts

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 19,800

Current projection: 20,677

Michigan

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 34,919

Current projection: 36,515

Minnesota

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 10,701

Current projection: 11,005

Mississippi

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 17,118

Current projection: 18,583

Missouri

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 23,069

Current projection: 23,665

Montana

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 3,696

Current projection: 3,799

Nebraska

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 5,072

Current projection: 4,927

Nevada

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 10,797

Current projection: 11,414

New Hampshire

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 4,103

Current projection: 4,066

New Jersey

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 32,373

Current projection: 33,526

New Mexico

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 8,748

Current projection: 9,008

New York

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 71,892

Current projection: 73,499

North Carolina

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 40,354

Current projection: 42,073

North Dakota

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 2,092

Current projection: 2,064

Ohio

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 42,070

Current projection: 42,901

Oklahoma

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 20,549

Current projection: 21,585

Oregon

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 10,613

Current projection: 10,571

Pennsylvania

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 46,963

Current projection: 48,247

Rhode Island

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 3,106

Current projection: 3,133

South Carolina

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 23,352

Current projection: 25,921

South Dakota

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 2,959

Current projection: 3,051

Tennesse

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 27,382

Current projection: 28,129

Texas

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 109,909

Current projection: 117,795

Utah

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 5,873

Current projection: 6,429

Vermont

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 751

Current projection: 919

Virginia

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 27,865

Current projection: 29,888

Washington

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 14,179

Current projection: 13,640

West Virginia

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 10,011

Current projection: 10,019

Wisconsin

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 16,982

Current projection: 17,078

Wyoming

COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 2,169

Current projection: 2,310


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