HOUSTON – The disturbance formed Saturday near the Yucatan peninsula and made its way to the Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon. Be prepared as bands of rain hit the Texas coast causing potential flooding.
The National Hurricane Center has given the disturbance a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm later Monday or Tuesday as it moves to the northwest towards the Texas coast. If it gains tropical storm strength, it would be named Bill.
Take a look at our live radar here.
The low is expected to move toward the northwest at about 12 mph, reaching the Texas Coast on Tuesday. Until a center actually forms in the Gulf, there is much uncertainty where landfall of the center of the low might be. Computer model forecasts from Sunday morning showcased the most likely landfall in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay.
High pressure over the eastern Gulf and the forecast for low end tropical storm winds means that most of the adverse weather will be to the east of where the center makes landfall. Periods of very heavy rain from the storm should occur late Monday through Tuesday as the system crosses the coast. I would expect 4 to 7 inches of rain across much of our area from this disturbance with a few spots getting in excess of 10 inches.
Since we already had locally heavy rains of 3 to 5 inches on Saturday and Sunday before the low gets here, a few rain gauges could see up to 15 inches of rain for a four-day total ending Tuesday. As the system moves inland, we will still have a good chance of more heavy rain on Wednesday. Anticipate that there will be significant flooding where the heaviest rain occurs.
Based on wind forecasts of up to tropical storm intensity, coastal communities could see rises of tides by one to two feet and minor beach erosion from rough waves.
The National Hurricane Center will schedule a Hurricane Hunter flight to investigate the developing system.
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The Harris County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management has moved to a Level 3 Increased Readiness due to the potential tropical weather threat.
They encourage everyone to use Monday as a day for preparing for the potential storm. It is suggested to gather supplies for at least 3 to 5 days as the rain fall increases later in the week and could prevent people from going outdoors.
We are continuing to follow conditions and will keep you updated on Click2Houston.com and KPRC 2 News.