Last week, NBC/MSNBC meteorologist Bill Karins posted a trivia tweet noting that the last time we had an August with no named tropical storms was 1997! Now that our models can actually get to the end of the month, it’s worth noting that we may, indeed, get to September before a named tropical storm or hurricane shows up in the Atlantic basin. Saying that, the National Hurricane Center slapped a 20% chance for development on a spot in the Atlantic:
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With that in mind, the American model doesn’t really develop the area for several days due to upper level wind shear ahead of it. It’s not until September that the low strengthens off the US coast and then there are also a couple of more systems following it:
The European is on board with the same forecast although the very end of the month might squeak in some development:
So just how DID 1997 pan out? Before the end of July, we had four named tropical systems and one depression including one of them -- Hurricane Danny -- in the Gulf that year. Interestingly, we did have minor development in June and July this year. No storms were recorded in August 1997, followed by just one in September and two in October! A quiet year indeed, especially since all but Danny stayed over the Atlantic:
So from a named system point of view, August may go out rather quiet. However, today through Wednesday we have a close eye on a sagging front which could produce some flooding across our area. We don’t need a tropical system to cause problems, so keep an eye to the sky this week!
Frank