Frank’s fall week

photo from

As many of us continue to clean up from Hurricane Nicholas (I thankfully had only minor damage in Galveston), I thought I’d bring that smiling ray of fall front hope to us all -- and, honestly, it’s looking like a pretty good bet!

I always mention that “meteorological” fall is September, October, November -- we do that for record keeping purposes. From a seasonal perspective, this year’s fall equinox occurs at 2:30 p.m., a week from today, Sept. 22. The sun lies directly over the equator as it crosses toward the Tropic of Capricorn and the bottom line is that our hours of daylight become shorter, our temperatures become cooler and odds for tropical weather go way down.

The latest we’ve had a hurricane hit the Texas coast is when Jerry slammed Galveston on Oct. 15-16, 1989. I blogged about this two years ago right here. Generally, our hurricane season is done by Oct. 3. Looking at the long range American Model, Atlantic storms are tending to stay away from the United States through the end of the month, although a little close for comfort if you live on the Eastern Seaboard:

Storms come close to the eastern seaboard---a couple of near misses

But did you notice that cold front sweeping across? If not, here it is again---September 23rd, just in time for fall to really begin!

Watch that long green line at the end of the loop---that is the cold front!

The Weather Prediction Center, part of NOAA, goes out one week from today and you can see next Wednesday’s front right there on the map:

A fall front cutting the country in two---but it gets here on the first full day of fall!

Will it really get cooler?

You bet it will. Not only will the air be cooler and refreshing, the European model by Friday, Sept. 24 has temperatures in the low 60s and the low 80s. Even upper 50s are likely for more outlying areas! Just in time for Randy McIlvoy’s Friday Football Frenzy game!

Fall temps for us a week from Friday

I know how these first fall front’s seem to invariably fall apart, but we have had a number of fronts this summer make it down here and even through the area. That climate set up gives me a lot of hope that this one will be the real deal. The only road blocker would be one of those Atlantic storms, so we’ll keep an eye on the tropics, as always.


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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, consumer and business news and local crime coverage.