The tropics: What’s next?

IDA space shot courtesy NOAA

First and foremost, prayers and healing to the folks in Louisiana and Mississippi. Ida did a number on them yesterday and continues to threaten flooding and tornadoes this morning. As we know from experience, recovery is a slow process.

While all eyes were on that 150mph hurricane Ida, you may not have noticed that we are already to the K storm! Julian came and went over the weekend in the north Atlantic and this morning TD 10 upgraded to Tropical Storm Kate:

KATE formed this morning with a nice swirl over the Central Atlantic courtesy NOAA

Kate will move north over the Atlantic and may ramp up to a 65 mph storm the next five days. I’ve drawn that path arrow in below, along with the next possible system. All eyes have turned to the glaring red cone coming off Africa which looks to be Larry in the next day or so.

I've drawn in arrows as to storm direction

Here is the GFS forecast and you’ll notice that L (coincidentally Larry) moving west and then north.

Watch that Low pressure off Africa turning north

You may also notice in the Caribbean another Low pressure system bouncing around. There is a 20% chance there of something developing but the models aren’t really convinced of much.

So let’s take a deep breath and hope for the best--we need to get through about six more weeks of hurricane season before letting our guard down here in Texas (usually by October 10th we are in the clear, but it’s a warming world out there so you can’t be 100% sure).

And as we just saw, it only takes a weekend to ruin your world.


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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with four decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.