What and where? Caribbean disturbance is moving west toward the Gulf

The one to watch!

Since yesterday, we’ve been watching this Caribbean tropical disturbance which now has an 80% chance to develop into a depression by the weekend. To see a satellite loop of the above, go here, courtesy NOAA.

Even as I blog, new models are being run on this system and until we have a closed circulation, or a CENTER of the storm, we won’t know clearly what direction the storm might take. As I always say, if you don’t know where you are, you don’t where you’re going! If you were watching yesterday, the American model (GFS) focused on Rockport as a target for a major hurricane while the European (EURO) had Louisiana as a strike point for a weak tropical storm.

How things shift.

This morning’s EURO actually moved a little west, toward Sabine, while the GFS moved into Central Louisiana! Here’s the EURO from Saturday to Tuesday showing a weak tropical storm:

European model has a storm moving into Sabine Monday

The morning run of the GFS looks like this with a major Cat 4 hurricane moving into central Louisiana!

GFS Saturday to Wednesday

Both these models have a high pressure system steering the storm -- and if that high gets weaker then a shift east might be seen later today or tomorrow. Likewise, a stronger high would mean a shift west. Below are the two models showing the high pressure I’m talking about:

Highs Pressure off Florida
High Pressure off South Carolina

You’ll notice the American model high is farther off to the north and east, thus the slightly different direction. But again, until we have a center and get the hurricane hunters in there, then we just have to do the best we can with what the models suggest. And those models, as we have seen in just twelve hours, change.

Keep alert, monitor the system, and we’ll let you know what we know as soon as we know it!

Frank

Email me and follow me on Facebook!


About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, consumer and business news and local crime coverage.