Where FRED is Going

Tropical Depression FRED courtesy NOAA

The Florida Panhandle is the short answer as to where FRED will make an eventual landfall (although we should count the Florida Keys, too, which FRED will crossover tomorrow, so technically a landfall over that island chain). Here’s the official 2pm forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

NHC FRED Forecast Track

That line track into the Florida Panhandle is a little left, or west, of where it has been and that is based on the European model vs the American Model--the NHC is basically splitting the difference between the two models.

Here’s a look at the Euro and below it the American. You’ll see the Euro goes into the Ft. Walton/Destin area while the American lands in Apalachicola:

FRED track into Ft Walton/Destin
FRED Tracks into Apalachicola/Port St. Joe

Both models keep FRED as a medium-strength Tropical Storm, around 50-60mph, although I’m always suspect of intensity forecasts and Florida should be prepared for some strong wind gusts, if nothing else. As far as rain, the Euro predicts 3-5″ generally with some isolated 5-7″ spots:

The red colors are 3-5" rain

What Else To Watch

And then there is Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 which is destined to become weak Tropical Storm GRACE tomorrow with 40-50mph winds. Like FRED, this storm will have trouble developing much due to dry air, wind shear and interaction with the northern Caribbean Island chain. Here’s the latest:

This will be GRACE and heading into the same place as FRED

Neither of these tropical trouble spots are headed to Texas and, for now, the long range models keep the tropics relatively quiet so let’s keep our fingers crossed!

Have a great weekend and stay cool!


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About the Author:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.