What to know about the Tropics this week

Tropical Depression 4 has formed with another possible system in the Atlantic
Tropical Depression 4 has formed with another possible system in the Atlantic

Today’s cover graphic shows the tropical system, TD4, just off the Georgia/South Carolina coast which is exactly where it is heading tonight. The depression will be crossing the Gulf Stream where water temperatures should be just warm enough (82-83F) to strengthen the system to a weak tropical storm which would be “Danny.” Here’s the crazy thing -- while surface winds may reach 40 mph, the rain forecast from the storm is hardly an inch:

NWS forecast for the Georgia/South Carolina area is half an inch to an inch

So despite our fourth named tropical cyclone moving ashore, this will be a pretty quick and done event. If you’re looking for rain, look here! We have showers in our forecast through the holiday weekend and totals could easily add up to six inches plus. In fact, just through tomorrow two to four inches or more is predicted:

NWS rain forecast for heavy rain through Tuesday

So keep an eye to the sky and Turn Around, Don’t Drown!

Tropical system No. 2

The other system in the Atlantic has a 40% chance to develop but the issue it will face is a lot of Saharan dust. You can see the latest and where the pink to red colors indicate dusty/dry air. It’s just now reaching the Caribbean:

Dry air over the developing tropical system in the Atlantic

So I would think that one will implode sooner than later. The better chance for tropical weather to make in impact is actually in the Pacific. Hurricane Enrique will move into the Baja (Cabo San Lucas) as a weak tropical storm but the rainfall as it moves up the coast of Mexico could exceed a foot!

courtesy National Hurricane Center

Be careful with our wet weather this week -- clearly it doesn’t take a tropical storm to cause problems around here!


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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, social media news and local crime.