It’s still hurricane season

NHC is watching this area for development
NHC is watching this area for development

It’s easy to forget that hurricane season lasts through Nov. 30 (sometimes longer) and, after all, the Greek hurricane names are in use.

The National Hurricane Center is watching the Caribbean now (still plenty warm down there) for possible development. The orange area below has a 60% chance to develop in the next five days (10% the next two days).

NHC forecast

Our question, of course, is where would it go from there (if it even develops). The American model, GFS, does have a Low over the Yucatan this Saturday staying buried in the Bay of Campeche:

American Model

In the long-range, the American also spins up another system the end of the period, but that is way beyond the range of reliability:

American Model next 10 days

The European basically stays storm-free over the period, including this weekend:

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