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It’s still hurricane season

NHC is watching this area for development
NHC is watching this area for development

It’s easy to forget that hurricane season lasts through Nov. 30 (sometimes longer) and, after all, the Greek hurricane names are in use.

The National Hurricane Center is watching the Caribbean now (still plenty warm down there) for possible development. The orange area below has a 60% chance to develop in the next five days (10% the next two days).

NHC forecast
NHC forecast

Our question, of course, is where would it go from there (if it even develops). The American model, GFS, does have a Low over the Yucatan this Saturday staying buried in the Bay of Campeche:

American Model
American Model

In the long-range, the American also spins up another system the end of the period, but that is way beyond the range of reliability:

American Model next 10 days
American Model next 10 days

The European basically stays storm-free over the period, including this weekend:

European Model
European Model

Bottom line is that we have these fantastic fall fronts continuing to move through. Below is our front for Thursday into Friday followed by another one Sunday night into Monday:

Thursday Night Front
Thursday Night Front
Sunday Night's front will move through by Monday
Sunday Night's front will move through by Monday

So we are in good shape for a bit. Enjoy the fall weather through the weekend into next week and let me worry about the tropics for you! If anything perks up, you’ll be the first to know!

Frank

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