67ºF

What to know about next week’s cold front

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True story: In August 1993, we had 14 days of 100+ temps -- eight of them in a row. During that time, the anchors asked me on-air when our first cold front would be so we could get some relief. You know me, I like taking wild guesses and so I off-handedly said “September 14th!” I didn’t think much of that until a viewer congratulated my guess because look what happened:

September 1993's First Cold Front
September 1993's First Cold Front

As my dad says, “I’d rather be lucky than good.”

That front brought us 3/4-inch of rain that night and look at the pleasant cool down:

September  1993 Cool Down
September 1993 Cool Down

That’s right, 70s and 50s on the 15th! Yay, he finally got one right.

So what about next week?

Models have been persistent with bringing us a cold front next Wednesday. The reason that would not happen is “traffic” -- other weather systems getting in the way and blocking the front. I don’t see any of those right now as our high in the Gulf is expected to move south and a high out west is expected to expand which would allow the front to slide in. Here’s a look at The Weather Prediction Center’s map a week from now:

Cold Front next Wednesday
Cold Front next Wednesday

There is no big H, or high, to the right side of the front to block it. The American (GFS) model has rain coming through and the front coming through! Here’s that depiction and I’ve drawn the front on:

Cold Front next Wednesday
Cold Front next Wednesday

As hopeful as the front itself is, look at what the same model does for morning temperatures next week, 50s to 60° on Thursday morning!

Next Week's Lows?
Next Week's Lows?

So is it all too good to be true? Will we actually have a September 9th Cold Front? I say, YES. But, remember, I’m just a professional weather guesser. And every thirty years I get one right.

Cheers,

Frank

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