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Hurricane outlooks and August fronts

Flooding in Puerto Rico from Isaias tweeted by Edwin Torres
Flooding in Puerto Rico from Isaias tweeted by Edwin Torres

Hurricane Isaias hit Puerto Rico hard with flooding, power outages and landslides.

Social media has well-documented the storm now moving into the Bahamas. I can’t keep up to date with such a fast-moving storm via my blog but here’s the Friday 1 p.m. forecast path:

NHC Forecast path 1pm Friday
NHC Forecast path 1pm Friday

This path has a 90 mph hurricane scraping along the Florida coast where they will brace more for damaging winds, wave run-up and dangerous rip currents. The bigger concern is a left jog into the Carolinas. Here is the American model (GFS) for that scenario Monday-Tuesday:

Isaias possible path
Isaias possible path

A landfall into the Carolinas will cause a lot of power outages, flooding rains, roof and tree damage.

What else I’m watching

The NHC also has two other areas of interest, one in the middle of the Atlantic with a 30% chance of development and another just off Africa with a 20% chance:

Two other flare ups in yellow
Two other flare ups in yellow

Fortunately, no models develop either one, so while it’s August and anything is possible these look unlikely to be an issue.

Speaking of August and anything possible, we have a front trying to make its way here today and another one next week! As to the latter, look at this, what we call a ‘deep trough’ and an indication that a front might actually make it through here without washing out:

Tuesday front?
Tuesday front?

The Weather Prediction Center has the front “just” at our coast on Tuesday:

Tuesday front?
Tuesday front?

The last August front of any significance that I recall was almost thirty years ago! I found this on the NWS weather calendar: In 1992, the Republican National Convention was held in Houston on August 17th, 18th and 19th. Houston, offering up the best in southern hospitality, provided record low temperatures for visiting guests. The low temperatures dropped to 60 degrees on the 17th and 62 degrees on the 18th. High temperatures during the convention failed to reach 90 degrees.

So it does happen! Not to be a downer, but it was just one week later that Hurricane Andrew slammed into Miami with 175mph winds. August is a month to watch for ANYTHING!

Have a safe weekend!

Frank

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