70ºF

Tropics are revving up! What we know about the three tropical flare-ups happening right now

Today's Gulf of Mexico courtesy NOAA
Today's Gulf of Mexico courtesy NOAA

HOUSTON – X marks the spot and in today’s tropical case, three spots!

Current NHC Tropical Outlook
courtesy the National Hurricane Center
Current NHC Tropical Outlook courtesy the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Flare-up #3 has actually been upped to a 20% chance for developing in the next two days, but in reality, this Low is going to move onshore tonight or tomorrow, so there’s not much time. Other than the clouds and rain we’ve seen (especially at the coast), I wouldn’t hold a torch for that one.

Let talk about Tropical Flare-up #2, way out there, and again with a low development chance, but an even smaller one once it moves into the windy Caribbean sea. The wind shear chart below is a mess at first glance, so just take note of the RED unfavorable area in the Caribbean. Wind shear should tear that one up.

That red area is the Caribbean should do in that tropical wave
That red area is the Caribbean should do in that tropical wave

So what about X number 1, just north of Cuba and now with a 20% development chance? Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly it tomorrow to see if they can find a circulation brewing (organization is the key to any of these actually becoming a tropical system). You can see across the Gulf there is neutral/favorable wind shear so there won’t be that issue and the water is plenty warm. Thirty degrees Celsius is 86°F:

Warm Gulf Water courtesy Tropical Tidbits
Warm Gulf Water courtesy Tropical Tidbits

So warm water and light winds tell me anything can happen with this one even though the models aren’t really keen on much. The plan is that the system, whatever it becomes, moves toward Texas and gets here Thursday or Friday. The circle I’ve pointed to shows a 1010mb Low on the Texas coast early Friday.

That small circle represents a Low Pressure system
That small circle represents a Low Pressure system

A 1010mb Low can produce winds of almost 35mph (almost a tropical depression) so it’s not out of the question. Right now, it’s not concerning and models bring only 2-4″ of rain inland. Given that we’re just four days out, I’m pretty confident in the model.

Our team is on it!

Frank

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