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Get ready! It’s already here

Tropical Storm Cristobal could form this week in the Bay of Campeche
Tropical Storm Cristobal could form this week in the Bay of Campeche

Hurricane season began officially Monday and, right on cue, a possible storm is brewing to our south. Tropical Depression Three formed in the Bay of Campeche on Monday afternoon and the forecast calls for it to strengthen.

The next name on the list is Cristobal and right now the storm looks to meander in the Bay of Campeche until the weekend and then move north. The American model has a 100-m.p.h. storm in the middle of the Gulf by Sunday:

Hurricane in the Gulf?? American Model says yes, but it's early
Hurricane in the Gulf?? American Model says yes, but it's early

And while that screenshot above would suggest the storm is going to the north, high pressure building to the north could shunt the storm toward Texas by Monday or Tuesday with a reduced wind speed of 60 m.p.h.:

High Pressure blocks the storm and sends it our way
High Pressure blocks the storm and sends it our way

Regardless of wind, storms like this produce a lot of rain, especially blocked storms that move slowly. Right now, this model has 20″ over the Gulf waters, but we know all too well how that can go:

Bright orange is 20"
Bright orange is 20"

So the phrase, for now, is watch and wait. We’ll stay on top of this event all week and weekend and see it through. Models and forecasts can change dramatically between now and then. But, heads up, folks, it’s hurricane season!

Frank

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