All eyes to the Gulf as a low pressure system slowly moves our way. This is not a wind storm, but a rain storm and, naturally, the question is how much rain?
Let's look at a few different forecasts for Tuesday through Thursday (the heaviest is forecast in the Wed/Thur timeframe). First, from the National Weather Service is this:
Recommended Videos
The heaviest amounts above are coastal at 8-10" with most of Harris County in a 6-8" range. Then there is the GFS, or American model:
That slug of moisture is again coastal but clear through eastern Harris County to Conroe with 10-12" in the red and gold area. Finally, the Weather Prediction Center (humans looking at the models) is similar:
This may not suggest as much rain (6-8") BUT is more widespread than the computer model.
So which is right? That's a hard one but what we CAN determine is that Southeast Texas on ALL of these forecasts is in for the brunt of the heaviest rain. The timing looks to be Wednesday and Thursday, and at a minimum, we are looking at 3-5" of rain. As I always say, with tropical moisture, you can DOUBLE that and it's easy to see 6-10" out of this. Take into consideration how slowly it is going to move and 12-20" of rain is going to probably show up somewhere. Remember, 100 divided by the speed the storm moves equals rain amounts possible. So, if this storm is moving only 5 mph then 100/5 is 20". And, because of the high pressure to the north (highlighted below) it's going to be a slow mover:
We'll continue our updates online and on-air this week. You should think about keeping your car off the street, and if you are flood-prone I can not guarantee this won't get into homes. So think about your plan of action (getting stuff higher) and checking on those you know and care about!
Frank