HOUSTON – This week I've been watching the Atlantic INVEST 96L and felt happy this morning waking up to NHC's updated forecast of 40% chance to develop, down from 70% Thursday night.
The system is going to have to overcome a lot of dry air (thank you, Saharan Dust) and strong wind shear out ahead of it, otherwise it's lights out:
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The season is reminding me more and more of 2014, a summer we didn't reach 100F and most of the storms that did form (and 2014 was below average) stayed in the Atlantic. They still affected land, but not the USA. And the reason 2014 came in under par: abnormally cold sea surface temperatures, higher than average sea-level pressures, and strong vertical wind shear. Same climate conditions we have this year! Check out the Wikipedia page for more.
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So as we enter August, the hottest we HAVE reached is 97° at IAH and 98° at Hobby. The Climate Forecast for the month came in about average for both precip and temperatures although maybe a little warmer:
FYI, there is a BURN BAN in Colorado County and we do have increased rain chances this weekend to 40% both Saturday and Sunday. Not a wash out, but keep an umbrella handy!
Have a great, safe weekend!
Frank