NOAA forecasts drought improvement across Southeast, Gulf Coast and Texas amid ongoing El Nino
This year, El Nino is in place heading into winter for the first time in four years, driving the outlook for warmer-than-average temperatures for the northern tier of the continental United States, according to NOAAโs U.S. Winter Outlook released last week by the Climate Prediction Center โ a division of the National Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Philippe soaks northeast Caribbean on a path toward Bermuda, New England and Canada
Tropical Storm Philippe is drenching the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as it spins away from the northeast Caribbean on a path that would take it toward Bermuda and later New England and Atlantic Canada.
Looking back, sub tourist calls himself 'naive' for taking 2021 dive to the Titanic
As an international search determined the implosion of a vessel that disappeared on its way to the underwater wreckage of the Titanic, a man who was one of the submersible company's first customers says a dive he made to the site two years ago was like a suicide mission.
Quebec orders more evacuations as dozens of wildfires in Canada remain out of control
Northern Quebecโs largest town was being evacuated as authorities turned their attention to communities in the northern and northwestern parts of the province where firefighters worked to beat back threats from out-of-control blazes.
Fly me a river
Weโre all used to the hurricane hunters out there flying into, well, hurricanes, to collect wind, temperature, pressure, and moisture data. The airplane shown above is the WC-130J which flies directly into these storms at 24,000-30,000 feet dropping what basically amounts to small computers (dropwindsondes) which sample the atmosphere as they fall to the ocean floor. That information is transmitted back to supercomputers to help create our hurricane forecasts.
Power failures amplify calls for utility to rethink gas
A federal utilityโs decision to resort to rolling blackouts after coal and natural gas units went offline during dangerously cold conditions has intensified questions about the Tennessee Valley Authorityโs recent decision to double down on fossil fuels.
What dictates a hurricaneโs strength?
There are many ways to categorize a hurricane. The stormโs central pressure is one way. The height of its storm surge is another. How much rain it drops is another. And, of course, the strength of its wind is another. But what causes a hurricane to strengthen or weaken? The answer is simple enough, but multifaceted.
The eclipsed Eclipse
Can you remember the fanfare of the August 2017 Full Solar Eclipse that crossed the country from northwest to southeast? Not since June 8, 1918 had such a celestial event occurred in the United States! We had a partial glimpse here in Houston that Monday afternoon of August 21st as you can see from the cover photo above: three meteorologists walk into an eclipse....below is the โpath of total darknessโ:
Forecasters predict above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hereโs what you need to know
Forecasters at NOAAโs Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, have just released their official hurricane forecast, predicting an above-average 2022 season. This would make it the seventh consecutive hurricane season weโve seen with higher than normal activity.
Dust can bust a hurricane forecast
The above NOAA pic of the Atlantic Ocean skies full of Saharan dust is from 2006 and you can imagine that any tropical showers and storms would have a zero percent chance of forming in that kind of atmosphere. Those dusty skies are dry for one thing and particulates are falling downward toward Earth, suppressing any upward motion required to get tropical storms to build.
When the tornado warning fails
Iโve written recently about the 1992 Channelview tornado outbreak when, fortunately, not a life was lost. The best we could do then to warn the public was break into live TV. By the time we received a warning from the National Weather Service and typed that warning into a crawl machine and then put it on air a good twenty minutes would pass. But those were the two warning methods for television along with NOAA weather radio. So weโve come a long way. But not far enough.
Rising Tides
A report just released from NASA, NOAA, and other agencies predicts that coastal sea levels will rise a foot by 2050 but we may get there on the Texas coast faster than that! Forecasting a significant increase in coastal flooding to the end of this century and beyond, the report includes interactive tools so that us regular folks can drill down a bit to our own areas to find out just what kind of sea level rises are really predicted. For the Texas coast, there is honestly not much comfort. For instance, Galveston by just the end of this decade, 2030, could see a tidal increase of a full foot, or .32 meters:
Temperatures continue to soar
Letโs face it: talking about an ever warmer world is not very sexy and we hear it so much that weโre getting used to it. That, of course, is the wrong road to take as weโre better off accepting the facts and moving forward toward solutions. Last year soared to #4 in the record books for hottest on record in the United States, but consider this: December was THE hottest December on record and summer was THE hottest on record (Houston barely reached 100ยฐ but youโll recall all those searing days in the Northwest).
2021 Hurricane season: Over and Well-forecasted
Granted, we havenโt seen much tropical activity the past couple of months, so the fact that the season is now โover overโ surprises no one. If you look at the bell curve of tropical activity, September 10th is the most likely day to have some kind of tropical system in the Atlantic Basin:
What to know about February
One of my viewers, Lourdes, wrote me this last Tuesday:Frank, What happened to your prediction of La Nina ruling this winter? You said it would be a dry, warm winter. Itโs the warm water that heats the air above it. That hot air rises, condenses and forms clouds which produce rain. AdWe both know that itโs usually a roller coaster around here and it wouldnโt surprise me to see a cold snap or two.
Why ETA will be so devastating
ETA, now a 50-mph tropical storm, continues to move over Nicaragua and Honduras at a slow 7 mph. Eta moving slowly over Central America courtesy NOAAThat slow movement divided into 100 (my rule of thumb for rainfall) equals 14-15 inches. My prayers are with them as Eta takes the next two days to move through that country. However, because 2005 had a couple of unnamed storms, that yearโs names did not get to ETA (stopping one short with ZETA). ETA forecasted pathOfficially the season ends Nov. 30, but if 2005 taught us anything it is not to look at the calendar -- that yearโs ZETA formed Dec. 28 and degenerated Jan.
Zeta Zooming Offshore The Mid-Atlantic Coast Toward The Western Atlantic
Zeta is moving toward the east-northeast near 55 mph (89 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge over the western Atlantic this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at Ocean City, Maryland. RAINFALL: The last of the heavy rainfall along the track of Zeta will impact the Mid-Atlantic through this evening.
What to know about our upcoming winter
NOAA has released their winter outlook for the United States and the forecast hinges on La Niรฑa, that cooler than normal Pacific water which tends to produce dry, warm weather for us. El Niรฑo on the other hand brings in wetter, cooler winters. Hereโs a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies, and you can see that huge blue Iโve circled below:La Nina is definitely in charge! However, with the continuing dryness into winter, developing drought for the eastern half of our state is forecast:Developing Drought forecast for SE TexasEnjoy our โwinterโ weekend, especially tonight! FrankEmail me and follow me on Facebook!
Delta adds insult to injury in hurricane-ravaged Louisiana
Marcus Peterson walks past a downed tree in his yard after Hurricane Delta moved through, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020, in Jennings, La. It then moved over Lake Charles, a city where Hurricane Laura damaged nearly every home and building in late August. While Delta was a weaker storm than Category 4 Laura, it brought significantly more flooding, Lake Charles Mayor Nic Hunter said. Forecasters warned that heavy rain, storm surges and flash floods continued to pose dangers in areas from Texas to Mississippi. They arrived back in Lake Charles last weekend, got a new roof on Monday and had to evacuate again Thursday.
Hurricane Delta inflicts new damage on storm-weary Louisiana
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Friday, Oct. 9, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico. โ Ripping tarps from already damaged roofs and scattering debris piled by roadsides, Hurricane Delta inflicted a new round of destruction on Louisiana as it struck communities still reeling after Hurricane Laura took a similar path just six weeks earlier. Delta's reach stretched as far west as Galveston, Texas, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) from where the storm struck Louisiana. Tropical Storm Marco fizzled as it hit the southeast Louisiana tip just three days before Laura struck. โThe wind is much worse than what Hurricane Laura brought,โ Gove said in a message on Twitter.
Heavy Rainfall Threat With Beta Has Diminished As The Center Has Become Less Determinant In The Pressure And Wind Fields
Location 60 miles NNE of Birmingham Alabama Wind 10 mph Heading NE at 10 mph Pressure 29.83 Coordinates 86.3W, 34.3NDiscussionAt 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) until it becomes indistinguishable within the background wind and pressure field by mid-afternoon Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 10 mph (20 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). Tropics Satellite at 3:39 Friday Night, September 25thWatches and WarningsThere are no watches or warnings in effect.
Teddy Heading Toward The Northwest Coast Of Newfoundland
Location 530 miles NNE of Halifax Nova Scotia Wind 50 mph Heading NNE at 32 mph Pressure 28.8 Coordinates 57.3W, 51.0NDiscussionAt 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 57.3 West based on the Marble Mountain, Newfoundland, radar and surface observations along the west coast of Newfoundland. On the forecast track, the center of Teddy should move closer to the northwestern Newfoundland coast tonight and into the Labrador Sea on Thursday before merging with a larger extratropical low. By the Sea, Newfoundland (near the Cow Head Lighthouse) reported a barometric pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches). SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the western coast of Newfoundland tonight.
The team thatโs studying the Saharan dust
Iโve been talking about this Saharan Air Layer of dust thatโs on the way for the weekend. In fact, so have those in space:We flew over this Saharan dust plume today in the west central Atlantic. Then, sending aircraft missions into hurricanes to study surrounding dust layers has proven very important to tropical forecasts. So knowing just how the SAL interacts with the atmosphere has become vital in forecasting hurricanes and other extreme weather events. This happened last February with West Texas Dust and I blogged about it.