Colorado State University hurricane forecast is here!
Colorado State University has put out their first forecast for the 2024 Atlantic season. Remember, this is not a landfall forecast, this is a formation forecast. The forecast calls for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. This is well above average for a typical year.
Where will the hurricanes go?
Every year the seasonal hurricane forecasts start rolling in during April and this year they are all pointing to another busy season! An average season brings 14 storms of which 7 become hurricanes and 3 become major. This coming season looks to be above that average with as many as 20 storms and 5 major hurricanes, depending on who you ask. Here are some of the recent forecasts:
Will Hurricane Season ever be โnormalโ again?
Last week at the National Tropical Weather Conference, Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University presented his 2022 Tropical Storm forecast. Accuweather had delivered theirs just a few days before. And while some headlines screamed โMonster seasonโ most went with โbusyโ or โabove normalโ. You might remember that โnormalโ recently increased from 12 storms to 14 and the considered average now is 14 tropical storms of which 7 will become hurricanes and 3 of those will become Major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5. I made a chart of the two forecasts so far:
Have we seen this Hurricane Season Before?
Last Wednesday I blogged about the newest hurricane forecast from Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. He is forecasting 17 storms of which 8 become hurricanes and 4 become major (Cat 3) hurricanes. A lot of research goes into his prediction and, as I discussed, a couple of important factors are the state of La Nina/El Nino and the temperatures of the Atlantic ocean waters. Specifically, presence of La Nina = a Busy season and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures = a Busy season. We have both a weak La Nina and the warm water, thus, his forecast of 17-8-4 is above the average season of 14-7-3.
Hurricane Alpha? Amped up season forecast, names may run out
Already smashing records, this years hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season is about to get even nastier, forecasters predict. The agency increased the chance of an above average hurricane season from 60% to 85%. Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season forecasts decades ago, on Wednesday amped its forecast to 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes all higher than their June forecast. An average year, based on 1981 to 2010 data, is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. There are 21 names assigned to a hurricane season.
July 7 Update: Thereโs an increase in the 2020 hurricane season forecast
HOUSTON โ Today, Colorado State University hurricane researchers led by hurricane expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, have increased their 2020 hurricane forecast to the following:The new updated July hurricane forecast for 2020We have already had five named storms as of the Fourth of July weekend, so according to the new updated hurricane forecast, we could see an additional 15 named storms before the end of the season! One of the fuels for an active hurricane season is warmer than average Atlantic Ocean waterActive Western Africa monsoon season:The current forecast for the monsoonal season across Western Africa is trending to be a wetter (more active) season than usual. These are important because a generally strong La Niรฑa pattern lends itself to a more active tropical season by history. Conversely, an El Niรฑo pattern generally is seen during less active tropical seasons. Weโll continue to see more updates to the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane seasonal forecast this August as well.