Colorado State University has put out their first forecast for the 2024 Atlantic season. Remember, this is not a landfall forecast, this is a formation forecast. The forecast calls for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
This is well above average for a typical year.
This forecast is being supported by several factors across the globe. First and foremost our sea surface temperatures are very warm. We have record-setting water temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic. We have had an El Niño pattern, but the forecast is a transition to La Niña conditions.
This is also more favorable for above-average tropical development in regards to wind shear. Remember, regardless of how many storms are forecast and form, it only takes one storm to make a big impact.
If you haven’t seen the new list of names, here it is! This is the same list as 2018, with two names being replaced. Florence was replaced with Francine. Michael was replaced with Milton.