Special Features

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1033 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- force winds are expected to persist through at least 04/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed from 11N27W to near 00N29W. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and within 150 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 100 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 57W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 01N31W to 00.5N42W. Scattered moderate convection is active along the ITCZ between 32W and 36W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft associated with a broad trough over the Gulf is interacting with warmer sea surface temperatures, and a surface trough, and a cold front over the NE Gulf to support numerous moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms over most of the Gulf E of 92W. Away from convection, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas prevail across the vast majority of the Gulf, except for areas N and E of the front where fresh to strong E winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front moving into the far northeast Gulf this morning will stall from southwest Florida to southeast Louisiana through Thu, then dissipate gradually by Sat. Expect fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas north of the front today and Thu. Meanwhile, a trough off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will extend farther north into the central Gulf today, and weak low pressure may form over the central Gulf through Thu. The low pressure may dissipate as it moves northward into the Louisiana coast through Fri. Strong to near- gale force winds are possible on the northern end of the trough over the north-central Gulf starting tonight as the low pressure forms. By Fri, these winds and seas will eventually merge with and enhance the ongoing conditions over the north-central Gulf, even as both the front and the low pressure dissipate. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild westward into the Gulf by Sat, supporting gentle to moderate SE breezes and moderate seas, except for fresh winds pulsing off the coast of Yucatan in the evening.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. Concurrent altimeter satellite data confirmed 7-10 ft seas across the central Caribbean as well. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except 3-6 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. Numerous moderate to strong convection is active over the far southwest Caribbean along the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and shift east through late today, allowing fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean to diminish slightly, although fresh to strong winds may pulse off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge may rebuild by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas across the central and northwestern Caribbean by Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic.

A pair of cold fronts are analyze in the West Atlantic. One front extends from S of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas, and the other from near 31N72W to near Vero Beach, FL. An upper level trough over the region is helping to support scattered moderate convection across a large region N of 23N between 62W and the SE US coast, including through the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are north of these frontal boundaries, while moderate to fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are prevalent to the S of these fronts. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the Atlantic. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas prevailing N of 15N and E of 25W. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic, aside from areas W of the Bahamas where gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1011 mb low pressure area is moving northeast past Bermuda, with a stalling frontal boundary extending to the northwest Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds, rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into Wed southwest of Bermuda, north of 27N. A second 1013 mb low pressure area is moving from Cape Hatteras to Bermuda with a reinforcing front currently reaching from 31N73W to Cape Canaveral, Florida, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. The fronts merge into one front from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas tonight. The merged front will stall from just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and South Florida by Thu night, then meander northward as it weakens through Sun.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams