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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Today, May 15th, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2024. This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through November 30 each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov
Posted 1 hour, 13 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Hagen/Blake
Special Features
Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas forecast from 15/12 UTC to 16/00 UTC. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are possible with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 13N17W to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 05N30W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N southward between 22W and 47W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A cold front extends from Mexico Beach, Florida, southwestward to Tampico, Mexico. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough extends from 28N82W to 27N87W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along the prefrontal trough east of the front to the Florida coast north of 26N. Moderate to fresh return flow is east of the front, with gentle to moderate NE winds west of the front. Seas are slight to moderate across the entire basin.
For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms from the aforementioned cold front are expected across the northeast Gulf today in association with the pre-frontal trough just north of Tampa Bay. The front will lift as a warm front later today and linger across the northern Gulf over the next few days. This will shift the focus of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the northern Gulf on Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken during the weekend as the gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
Caribbean Sea
High pressure centered southwest of Bermuda is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras and fresh E winds in the south-central and portions of the southwest basin. Moderate to rough seas are in these waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southwest Caribbean south of 14N near the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, the strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun. Winds in the south-central basin will improve tonight into Thu, but strong winds will return by the weekend. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through the weekend. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across some areas of the NW Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted off the northeast Florida coast to 70W due to an approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. Showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning and gusty winds are also noted moving off the central Florida coast and north of Freeport this morning. Meanwhile, ridging extends over the rest of the Atlantic offshore waters between 51W and 76W Light to gentle winds and slight seas, which result from the influence of this high.
In the central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N48W to 23N54W with a surface trough following the front to 20N64W. Scattered moderate convection is along and ahead of the front, north of 25N and west of 40W. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are north of 28N between the front and 43W.
In the eastern Atlantic, a 1030 mb high pressure near 42N33W dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters and moderate seas, except fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 18N between the coast of Africa and 20W.
For the forecast, the front will push off the northeast Florida coast by Thu and extend from 31N68W to 29N81W Fri morning, and weaken as it extends from 31N61W to 28N71W Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds will continue ahead of the front through Fri along with showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will improve by Fri night into the weekend as the front dissipates. Tranquil conditions are expected this weekend.
Posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Nepaul
