HOUSTON – Houston’s summer pattern is not going anywhere, but rain chances are trying to sneak back into the forecast over the next few days. It means our classic July setup is back: warm and muggy mornings, hot afternoons, and a few scattered storms bubbling up during the peak heating of the day.
Thursday’s forecast:
Thursday will be another very warm day with afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90s across Southeast Texas. Houston should climb to around -92-94 degrees, but with humidity factored in, it will feel hotter than that.
A few scattered showers and storms will be possible Thursday afternoon, especially along and south of I-10. Our Futuretrack shows some of the better rain chances near Sugar Land, Pearland, Angleton and coastal communities, though a few downpours could develop closer to Houston as well.
These storms will be hit-or-miss, so some neighborhoods may get a quick soaking while others stay completely dry. Any storm that develops could briefly produce heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds before fading.
Fourth of July weekend:
Friday looks hot and humid with highs in the mid-90s. Houston is forecast to reach around 96 degrees, with only a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm. Most of the day should be dry, but it will feel very summer-like with plenty of heat and humidity.
Saturday, the Fourth of July, looks hot and humid with highs in the mid-90s. Houston is forecast to reach around 96 degrees, with a low-end rain chance around 20%.
That means most outdoor plans should be fine, but an isolated afternoon shower or storm cannot be ruled out. If you are heading to parades, cookouts or fireworks, plan for lots of water, sunscreen and breaks in the shade.
By fireworks time, temperatures will likely still be in the 80s, with humidity staying high.
Watching the Tropics:
The tropics are quiet right now, and there is no tropical development expected over the next seven days. That’s good news heading into the Fourth of July weekend.
That said, this is the time of year when we start watching the tropics a little more closely. July is not the peak of hurricane season, but storms can and do form this month. Houston knows that well. Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas on July 8, 2024, bringing damaging wind, heavy rain and widespread power outages to Southeast Texas.
So while there is no tropical threat in the forecast right now, it is a good reminder to stay weather-aware and make sure your hurricane kit is ready before the season gets busier. Tropical activity typically ramps up more in August and September, but July is when we start paying closer attention to any disturbances moving through the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf.
10 Day Forecast:
Looking ahead, Houston’s forecast stays very consistent. Highs remain in the mid-90s most days, with lows in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Rain chances sit around 20% to 30% through early next week, then trend a little lower by the middle and end of next week. The main story continues to be the heat and humidity. Even when the forecast high is “only” 94 to 96 degrees, it will feel hotter during the afternoon. Heat safety will stay important, especially for anyone spending a lot of time outside over the holiday weekend.
That means Houston will continue to see a very typical July setup: hot afternoons, muggy mornings and isolated showers mainly driven by daytime heating.