HOUSTON – A new survey from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows a tight Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate in Texas, with Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slim lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn just weeks before voters head to the polls.
According to the poll, Paxton has the support of 48% of likely GOP runoff voters, compared to 45% for Cornyn. With only 7% of voters still undecided, researchers say turnout could ultimately determine the winner.
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“Just 7% of people who plan to vote haven’t decided, suggesting the candidate who is able to turn out his voters will determine the winner,” said Renée Cross with the Hobby School.
Key differences among voters
The survey highlights clear divides between supporters of the two candidates:
Paxton voters are more focused on immigration and border security, with 40% naming it their top issue.
Cornyn voters are more concerned about inflation and cost of living, with 36% selecting it as their priority.
Despite those differences, both camps overwhelmingly believe their candidate is the strongest Republican to face Democrat James Talarico in the general election. About 86% of supporters on each side said their candidate is more electable.
Education and voter trends
Researchers also found a strong link between education levels and candidate preference. Cornyn leads by 10 points among voters with a four-year college degree, while Paxton holds a 17-point advantage among those without one.
Paxton also appears to be benefiting more from voters who previously supported Wesley Hunt in the March primary. Among those voters, 53% now back Paxton, compared to 34% for Cornyn.
Other statewide races
The survey also examined other Republican runoff contests:
In the attorney general race, state Sen. Mayes Middleton leads U.S. Rep. Chip Roy 48% to 39%, with 13% undecided.
For the Texas Railroad Commission, incumbent Jim Wright leads challenger Bo French 35% to 28%, though 37% of voters remain unsure.
Favorability of GOP leaders
Among top Republican figures, Vice President JD Vance received the highest favorability rating at 81%, followed by Donald Trump (77%), Ted Cruz (76%), and Greg Abbott (75%).
The Republican primary runoff is set for May 26, with early voting beginning May 18.
The survey was conducted between April 28 and May 1 among 1,200 likely runoff voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83%.