HOUSTON – The National Weather Service has issued a severe weather threat for Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
Weather bullet points:
- We’ll watch for more isolated rain Wednesday morning, building slightly by afternoon with a few isolated cells to the north, a somewhat stronger line north of College Station with isolated showers Thursday morning. Depending again on the timing of the front. This will depend on the timing of the front.
- Thunderstorms, hail and gusty winds are possible. The majority of the low but real severe weather activity - including hail and a 2% tornado risk - is expected north of our area, while damaging winds look more consistent across the entire area but still low for Houston - 5% and slightly higher for areas to the north -15%.
But first, let’s talk about what we know and what we don’t know.
It’s really going to depend on the timing of the front itself, which at times can be tricky.
However, thanks to our weather app, we can send you updates and articles in real-time when it’s happening, because Mother Nature doesn’t exactly ask our permission to roll into town. She just does.
You can track radar here before you leave your house:
TIMING: Here’s a look at Futuretrack to help plan your day.
We’ll watch for more isolated rain Wednesday morning, building slightly by afternoon with a few isolated cells to the north, a somewhat stronger line north of College Station with isolated showers Thursday morning. Depending again on the timing of the front.
Severe Weather Threats: Thunderstorms, Rain, Hail and a 2% tornado risk for areas to the north.
Right now, areas to the north like College Station, Crockett, and Livingston are under a 2 out of 5 severe weather threat, while areas near I-10 in Houston are a 1 out of 5.
The most popular question we get when a severe weather threat is split into two categories is: What’s the difference between the two?
YELLOW: Slight Risk (2 out of 5): An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage but with varying levels of intensity.
In plain terms: Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible (more than just isolated), with better organization and structure — meaning storms are more dependable at producing severe weather where they form, though still not widespread or outbreak-level.
So what’s the difference between a Slight and Marginal severe weather threat for Wednesday?
The green (Marginal) areas indicate isolated, iffy potential: severe weather could happen in a few spots, but most storms will likely remain disorganized and spotty.
However, neither is a “major outbreak” scenario (that would be a 4 or 5/High risk).
Weather Threats for Wednesday:
Thunderstorms, hail and gusty winds are possible. The majority of the low but real severe weather activity - including hail and a 2% tornado risk - is expected north of our area, while damaging winds look more consistent across the entire area but still low for Houston - 5% and slightly higher for areas to the north -15%.
Hail: We’ll watch for the large hail risk for areas to the north of Huntsville.
Our weather team will track a 2% tornado risk for areas in green. So while it’s on the lower end, we always say - it’s a low but real threat.
We will keep an eye on wind as the front pushes through - the areas that you see in yellow have a 15% of damaging winds while the areas in brown have 5% chance for damaging winds.