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Thursday’s Forecast:
Did you know tomorrow marks a unique point in Houston’s climate calendar? On Thursday, August 13, the average high drops from 96° to 95°. From a climatological standpoint, that means we’re now on the downhill side of summer, with average temperatures gradually cooling for the rest of the year.
Now don’t get too excited. Houston won’t feel cooler anytime soon. We’re heading into a stretch of hot, humid weather, with Thursday’s high expected to reach 98°. Add the humidity, and it will feel like 108°.
Chance of rain Friday:
Our next slug of tropical moisture arrives Friday, bringing more clouds, higher humidity and a slight drop in temperatures.
We could start the day with coastal showers and thunderstorms before storms gradually move north during the afternoon. However, the area of high pressure steering this moisture into Southeast Texas will also limit widespread rainfall. Sinking air associated with the high will work against more organized shower and thunderstorm development.
For Houston, I’m going with a 30% chance of afternoon thunderstorms Friday.
Tracking the tropics:
It’s been a busy week in the tropics. Christobal formed Wednesday and it will quickly die out Thursday.
Two more storms in the Atlantic:
There are two other disturbances we’re watching in the Atlantic. While Disturbance #2 currently has the higher chance of becoming Tropical Storm Dolly, the system behind it has a better chance of becoming stronger and lasting longer.
Disturbance #2 will encounter incredibly strong wind shear, which should limit its development. At most, I expect it could briefly become a tropical storm, potentially lasting only a day or two. Even so, it could bring some beneficial rain to Puerto Rico, which is currently dealing with drought conditions.
As for Disturbance #1, long-range computer modeling continues to suggest the system will curve north and remain over the open Atlantic, keeping it away from land.
I’ll continue to keep an eye on both systems and keep you posted as they evolve.
Watching Hawaii for tropical impact:
Hawaii is in the projected path of soon-to-be Tropical Storm Lala in the Central Pacific. While the official forecast from the Hurricane Center currently brings Lala over the islands as a tropical storm, some computer models show a stronger system, with the potential to reach Category 1 or even Category 2 hurricane strength.
Regardless of the storm’s eventual strength, the biggest concerns for the islands will be strong winds, heavy rainfall and large, dangerous ocean currents.
10 Day Forecast:
After Friday, our rain chances drop to essentially zero. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 90s, and we’ll likely see several days where the heat index climbs high enough for a Heat Advisory to be issued.
In other words, enjoy Friday’s slightly cooler, wetter weather because the heat comes roaring back this weekend.