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HOUSTON – Houston’s recent wet weather pattern is out as high pressure builds across Southeast Texas. The dry air from the high pressure paired with Saharan dust that will stick around through the early week.
Weekend Forecast:
Saturday will be partly sunny with afternoon temperatures reaching the mid-90s. The heat index will climb to around 105 degrees, so anyone spending extended time outside should take frequent breaks and stay hydrated.
Sunday will be sunnier and a little hotter, with a high of 96 degrees and a heat index of 106°.
Tracking the tropics:
There is an upper-level low pressure area over the state of Florida. If this low can sink to the surface, it could become our next named storm. The chances of this happening early next week are 30%.
The latest model data continues to push the low west into Mexico by the middle of next week, which would keep most of the rain away from Houston.
But here’s the catch: the overall weather pattern tells a slightly different story. The high-pressure system to our north this weekend isn’t centered directly over us, leaving an opening for that low to drift farther north than the models currently suggest.
So next week, it’s really a battle between the model guidance and the larger-scale weather pattern. For now, I’m keeping Houston dry, but we’ll be watching closely and will update the forecast if that low starts heading our way.
10 Day Forecast:
The heat will continue building into next week as high pressure settles over the region.
High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s Monday and beyond, with Houston potentially hitting our first 100 degree day of the year Tuesday or Wednesday. Recent rainfall and wet soil could keep temperatures just below the century mark, but heat index values will still be uncomfortable.
The hot and dry pattern is expected to continue through the end of the workweek, with no rain showing up in the forecast.