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Saturday’s forecast:
HOUSTON – More storms are expected this weekend. While similar to the hit and miss sea breeze storms we’ve had all week, we now have tropical moisture mixed in. That means rain will be more widespread and it will be heavier. It won’t rain all day, but storms will be more numerous. There is no need to cancel your Saturday plans but have a plan B where you can wait for the storms to pass over you.
Sunday’s forecast:
Rain should be more widespread Sunday with our first street flooding threat in our eastern cities. The day is not a washout but it’s starting to get close.
Monday and Tuesday’s forecast:
These are the two days I want you to make sure you’re prepared for. There is the potential for street flooding both days. We haven’t had a heavy rain forecast like this in a month. Not only do we have tropical moisture streaming in from the Gulf, but we also have a front that will enhance the lift of the storms. This combination may lead to rain totals of 2″-3″.
The impact of Saharan Dust:
One part of the forecast that remains difficult to model is the impact of Saharan dust. We expect a plume of dust to move over Southeast Texas from Monday evening through Tuesday, and current imagery suggests it could be fairly dense.
Thick layers of dust aloft tend to dry the atmosphere and promote sinking air, which can limit the intensity of rainfall. If the dust is less concentrated, however, its tiny particles can serve as condensation nuclei and actually enhance rain development.
At this point, I expect abundant Gulf moisture to outweigh the dust’s suppressing effects. Still, if storm impacts are more limited than expected on Monday and Tuesday, Saharan dust is a likely reason.
10 Day Forecast:
Once we get through Tuesday high pressure will begin to build in. By the end of next week drier weather is expected with hotter temperatures.