Tropical trouble? Too soon to know!

Generic hurricane shot from click2houston.com

The heat is on and the tropics continue to heat up! Now with Henri on the move, the next name on the list is Ida--here’s a trivial pursuit answer for you: the “I” storm is the most retired of hurricane names. Take that for what it’s worth but the “I” storms tend to cause trouble.

The models are in fairly good agreement for another tropical spin up over this next weekend. This one happens in the northwest Caribbean and while the Canadian model moves it toward Brownsville, the American and European are farther south in Mexico. Here’s the Canadian GEM:

Northwest Caribbean storm forms over the weekend moving into Brownsville Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Here is the European with a more southern landfall:

European model courtesy Weathermodels.com

The American is in line with the Euro on this one and the far extended range of the American forms another storm right behind it for Labor Day weekend. That storm is too far out in time for any confidence, but you can’t help but notice that our part of Texas has a landfall of a monster storm! Again, too soon to know anything, but a good reminder that while it has been quiet for us this year, that is no guarantee to continue.

GFS model

Bottom Line

The first storm forming in the northwest Caribbean later this week/weekend looks to have a reasonable chance given the models are all on board for ‘something’ to spin up and we’ll have to be on watch for its eventual path. After all, nothing has even formed yet and, as I always say: if you don’t know where you are, you don’t know where you’re going. So stay tuned. As for the bigger Labor Day weekend storm, that one is way too far out to be of any concern right now.

Frank

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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, consumer and business news and local crime coverage.