State Rep. James Talarico jumped out to a narrow lead in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, according to early but incomplete returns that put the Austin Democrat ahead among voters who cast their ballots before election day.
Talarico’s early lead did not factor in results from Dallas County, the home base of his chief opponent, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, and the second-most populous in the state. Poll hours were extended to 9 p.m. in Dallas County after confusion over a new voting location rule led numerous voters to be turned away. Early returns had been reported in Texas’ other large counties, where most of the Democratic vote is concentrated.
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Democratic voters flocked to the polls during the 11-day early voting period, in no small part to make their voice heard in the fiercely competitive Senate race at the top of the ticket.
More than 1.5 million people voted early in the Democratic primary, according to VoteHub, exceeding turnout in the Republican primary and more than doubling early turnout in the 2022 midterm. Over the past three Democratic primaries in Texas, an average of 45% of all ballots were cast on election day, according to GOP consultant Derek Ryan.
Tuesday’s primary is being widely watched as an indicator of the potential future of the Texas Democratic Party, with Crockett and Talarico — both political heavyweights boasting national profiles and enormous social media presences — putting forth vastly different visions of the kind of politics needed to win statewide, even as they largely aligned on policy.
Crockett, drawing from her reputation as a fiery communicator, argued that the path to a blue Texas rests on driving scores of disengaged Democrats to the polls with a promise to wage partisan warfare against the GOP. Talarico, meanwhile, thinks it is necessary to both juice Democratic turnout and build a big tent, putting forth a populist, faith-based message of a “politics of love” that he argued could counter the division stoked by billionaire political donors and form a winning coalition.
A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988. And while Texas is not on national Democrats’ list of targets to retake the Senate, party leaders in the state see a prime opportunity this year to finally flip Texas, hoping that backlash to the Trump administration, a brutal Senate primary on the Republican side and the possibility of facing hard-right, scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton will all set the stage for an upset.
The competition tested Democrats’ appetite for identity politics, with questions around race and gender inflaming the race as election day neared.
Crockett cast concerns about her electability in a red state as racist dog whistles, and she called a pro-Talarico super PAC’s ad citing the apparent GOP preference for her nomination “straight up racist” and accused the ad of darkening her skin. The ad applied a dark filter throughout, including over other people pictured. Campaigns cannot legally coordinate with super PACs, and Talarico has repeatedly emphasized his respect for Crockett.
The racial tensions tearing the primary apart were amplified by political content creators from around the country, who waged a vicious online proxy war on behalf of their preferred candidates.
Republicans, too, fanned the division and made no secret of their belief that Crockett would be easier to beat in November. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn called Crockett’s decision to run a “gift,” and Talarico’s potential nomination “dangerous.” A Crockett spokesperson said Republicans “who underestimate her do so at their own peril.”
Outside spending on behalf of both Crockett and Talarico by super PACs whose donors remain largely anonymous also helped frame the race.
By the end of early voting, Talarico had outspent Crockett nearly five-to-one on advertising, including outside spending, according to media tracking firm AdImpact. Talarico, who began the race with much lower name recognition, spent $15.3 million on ads through his campaign alone, compared to Crockett’s $4.3 million; a pro-Talarico super PAC dropped another $7.7 million, while a super PAC boosting Crockett had spent less than $500,000.