HOUSTON â Grocery price increases slowed in March, offering some relief to consumers, but food costs remain higher than a year ago, according to new federal data and economic analysis.
The latest Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the cost of food at home, a key measure of grocery prices, rose 1.9% over the past year. That marks a slowdown compared to previous months and the first time grocery inflation has dipped below 2% since late 2025.
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On a monthly basis, grocery prices actually declined 0.2% in March, with four of six major food categories seeing decreases. Prices dropped for items like cereals, dairy products and meats, while fruits and vegetables increased.
Economists say the easing reflects a broader cooling trend in grocery inflation, even as overall inflation rose sharply due to surging energy costs.
Still, shoppers are not necessarily seeing meaningful relief at the checkout line.
Food prices overall remain about 2.7% higher than a year ago, and certain categories, including fresh produce and beverages, continue to climb faster than others.
Meanwhile, the cost of eating out continues to outpace grocery inflation. Prices for food away from home rose 3.8% over the past year, highlighting ongoing pressure on restaurant prices.
Experts note that while some staple items, like eggs and dairy, have seen price drops, others such as beef and coffee remain elevated due to supply issues and strong demand.
Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts food prices will continue rising in 2026, though at a moderate pace. Grocery prices are expected to increase about 3.1% this year, while restaurant prices could rise even faster.
The takeaway: Grocery inflation is cooling, but consumers are still paying more overall, and relief at the store is likely to remain gradual.